Our Eurovision Asia 2026 prediction is a Malaysia win, with Aina Abdul’s “Bluest Sky” ahead of the Philippines’ CARMELLE and Vietnam’s Tóc Tiên. Below are all eleven acts ranked in the order we expect them to finish in Bangkok on Saturday 14 November. For each one we give its Polymarket prices, read about 01:47 UTC on 9 November, the betting angle, and where we part company with the market. These are predictions, our editorial opinion. Where they differ from the prices, we say why.
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Image: the eleven acts of Eurovision Asia 2026. Official lineup graphic, Eurovision Song Contest Asia (eurovisionasia.com).
Key takeaways
- Our winner: Malaysia. Aina Abdul is 54.5% on Polymarket and leads the jury book at 67.5%. We agree with the favourite, but not at any price.
- Our runner-up: the Philippines. CARMELLE is 25% to win and only four points behind Malaysia on the public vote. She is the one act that can beat the favourite.
- Our podium pick against the market: Vietnam over Thailand. The market has the host at 44% for the top three and Vietnam at 40.5%. We have Tóc Tiên third.
- The price we think is wrong: Nepal. It is 8% to win but only 6% to finish in the top three. Both cannot be right.
- The public-vote wildcard: South Korea, 11.5% on the public vote against 1.4% with the juries.
What’s on this page
Our predicted finishing order · How we ranked them · The contenders, 1–4 · The chasers, 5–7 · The outsiders, 8–11 · Where we disagree with the market · FAQ
Eurovision Asia 2026 predictions: our finishing order
Prices are Polymarket mids, the halfway point between the best bid and best offer, from the winner, Top 3, jury and public-vote markets.
| Our rank | Country | Act | Slot | Win | Top 3 | Jury | Public | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malaysia | Aina Abdul | 11 | 54.5% | 78.5% | 67.5% | 38.0% | Winner |
| 2 | Philippines | CARMELLE | 6 | 25.0% | 69.5% | 14.5% | 34.0% | Runner-up, public-vote threat |
| 3 | Vietnam | Tóc Tiên | 1 | 8.1% | 40.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | Podium |
| 4 | Thailand | MANG x DAOU | 8 | 4.5% | 44.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | Just off the podium |
| 5 | South Korea | JUNHEE | 9 | 1.2% | 20.5% | 1.4% | 11.5% | Top five on the phones |
| 6 | Laos | Thinla | 3 | 5.5% | 27.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | Best of the rest |
| 7 | Nepal | Pratik Himal Rai | 10 | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 0.1% | Overpriced to win |
| 8 | Cambodia | Monetrey | 2 | 0.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | Mid-table |
| 9 | Mongolia | Beck | 4 | 0.2% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 0.1% | Mid-table |
| 10 | Bhutan | Nyendra | 5 | 0.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 0.1% | Jury-friendly outsider |
| 11 | Bangladesh | Beatmosphere | 7 | 0.1% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | Outsider |
How we ranked them
We started from the market, because prediction-market prices pool more information than any one writer. Then we adjusted for four things the prices treat unevenly:
- The 50/50 rule. The result is half jury, half public, country by country, with a Rest of World public vote on top. We read the jury and public-vote books together, not the winner book alone.
- The own-country ban. Nobody may vote for their own country, which takes the biggest home audience away from the host.
- The running order. Vietnam opens and Malaysia closes. Vienna in May suggests slots matter less than the song. The winner sang 12th of 25 and the closing act finished 24th.
- Evidence from Bangkok. Four acts had rehearsed by the time we wrote this. The other seven, including all four of our contenders, rehearse today.
We will revise this after the second day of rehearsals. For the market numbers in full, see our six-book odds report. The rules are in our jury vs public guide.
The contenders: who will win Eurovision Asia 2026
1. Malaysia — Aina Abdul, “Bluest Sky” (slot 11)
Aina Abdul was named for Malaysia on 15 August and released “Bluest Sky” on 9 October: a song she wrote, arranged and co-produced by Mac Chew. Her market strength is the juries. The jury book has her at 67.5% on a one-cent spread, the most confident price in the event. She closes the show. Our call: winner. Full Aina Abdul profile → The betting angle is the public vote. She is only 38% there, on a 29c-to-47c quote, so a strong televote for anyone else could catch her. Her 78.5% Top 3 price is the safest number on the board.
2. Philippines — CARMELLE, “Sobra-Sobra” (slot 6)
CARMELLE won Philippine Selection Night in Quezon City on 30 August. She is the only act priced close to Malaysia on the phones: 34% to Malaysia’s 38%, on a tighter quote. Her jury price is 14.5%, which is the problem. In Vienna, Romania came second on the televote with weak jury marks and finished third. Our call: runner-up. Full CARMELLE profile → At 25% to win she is a fair price for the one realistic upset, and her 69.5% Top 3 price looks right.
3. Vietnam — Tóc Tiên, “EM TIÊN” (slot 1)
Tóc Tiên won The Sound of Vietnam on 3 October. On 6 October we called “EM TIÊN” the best song in the field, and on 15 October she said it would be reworked with a bigger techno drop. The market has since moved to Malaysia. Vietnam is 8.1% to win, with some real trades behind it, and 40.5% for the podium. Opening the show is the risk: ten songs come between her and the vote. Our call: third. Full Tóc Tiên profile → We rate the song above the host’s, and she has the biggest home profile in the field. Search for her name in Vietnam runs at about 40,500 a month, according to Google search data from DataForSEO.
4. Thailand — MANG x DAOU, “Aroma” (slot 8)
The host duo won Thailand’s Chosen One on 27 September. The market puts Thailand third for the podium at 44%, and joint favourite with South Korea for third place at 20.5%, but only 4.5% to win and 3% on the public vote. That is the own-country rule at work: Thai residents, the biggest audience in the hall, cannot vote for them. Our call: fourth, just off the podium. Full MANG x DAOU profile → A host podium needs strong scores from the other ten countries’ juries and viewers. Nothing in the market says MANG x DAOU have that yet.
The chasers: Eurovision Asia predictions for 5th to 7th
5. South Korea — JUNHEE, “DEEP DIVE” (slot 9)
JUNHEE, A.C.E’s Park Junhee, won Korea’s Next Wave on 4 September. His prices tell a clear story: 11.5% on the public vote, 1.4% with the juries. The Rest of World public vote counts anyone outside the eleven countries, and a K-pop following travels. Our call: fifth overall, and a contender for third on the phones. Full JUNHEE profile → His joint-favourite price for third place (20.5%) is a bet that the public half carries him that far. We think the jury half holds him back.
6. Laos — Thinla, “BAE” (slot 3)
Thinla. Official image, Eurovision Song Contest Asia.
Thinla was the first act to rehearse in Bangkok, with at least four dancers and a new look, and her Top 3 price jumped 11.5 points that day, to 27.5%. She is level in both books, 6.8% jury and 7.3% public, so she has no obvious weak half. Our call: sixth, best of the rest. Full Thinla profile → The Top 3 move came on a 13c-to-42c quote, so it is a signal, not a consensus.
7. Nepal — Pratik Himal Rai, “Ananta Maya” (slot 10)
Pratik Himal Rai. Official image, Eurovision Song Contest Asia.
Pratik Himal Rai won Nepal Decides on 7 October, though Himalaya TV published only a top three. Nepal’s winner price doubled in two days to 8%, on quotes rather than trades: the last trade is still 3.5c. Meanwhile its Top 3 price is 6% and its public-vote price 0.1%. Our call: seventh. Full Pratik Himal Rai profile → We think the 8% winner price is the one that is wrong.
The outsiders: Eurovision Asia predictions for 8th to 11th
8. Cambodia — Monetrey, “I Let You Go” (slot 2)
Monetrey won Cambodia’s Finest Voice on 17 October, the last of the eleven selections, with a ballad in Khmer, English and French. His first rehearsal was the barest staging of day one, a man and a spotlight. Our call: eighth. Full Monetrey profile → His 13% Top 3 price is generous for an act at 0.1% to win.
9. Mongolia — Beck, “Chamguigeer (Without You)” (slot 4)
Beck. Official image, Eurovision Song Contest Asia.
MNC chose Beck internally on 1 October. The song that won Mongolia’s Chosen One, “Light”, was then ruled ineligible because it was released in 2018, so the runner-up goes to Bangkok. A replacement song is a handicap. The jury book quotes Mongolia at 7% with almost nothing traded. Our call: ninth. Full Beck Munkhbayar profile →
10. Bhutan — Nyendra, “Lhayi Semo” (slot 5)
Nyendra was the first artist confirmed for Eurovision Asia, winning Rhythm of Bhutan on 11 August. He performs alone in the gho, against a Himalayan backdrop. An untraded quote puts Bhutan third in the jury book at 7.8%. Our call: tenth, with a better jury score than public one. Full Nyendra profile →
11. Bangladesh — Beatmosphere, “Tumi Ele” (slot 7)
The a cappella and beatbox group won NTV’s first Voice of Bangladesh on 30 September and arrived with new outfits and choreography. They are the lowest-priced act on the jury book, at 0.5%. Our call: eleventh. Full Beatmosphere profile → We could be wrong about this one: a novelty act can surprise a public vote, which Bangladesh’s 6.1% Top 3 price half-allows for.
Where we disagree with the market: the betting angles
| Market price | What it says | Our view |
|---|---|---|
| Thailand Top 3, 44% | The host is the third-likeliest podium finisher | Too high: no home televotes, and only 4.5% with the juries |
| Vietnam Top 3, 40.5% | Slightly behind the host for the podium | Too low: we have Tóc Tiên third |
| Nepal win, 8% | As likely to win as Vietnam | Too high: it is only 6% for the top three |
| South Korea third place, 20.5% | Joint favourite for bronze | Fair on the phones, but the jury half caps him |
| Malaysia public vote, 38% | Slight favourite for the televote | Fair, on an 18-cent spread; this is where an upset starts |
The single biggest call in this ranking is Vietnam over Thailand for third. If the host’s rehearsal today is a big production that lands with juries, we will revise it. If Tóc Tiên’s reworked song lands as promised, the Top 3 market should start to agree with us. Our running-order analysis covers the slots behind these calls. Every act has a profile on the Eurovision Asia hub.
FAQ
Who will win Eurovision Asia 2026?
Our prediction is Malaysia, with Aina Abdul’s “Bluest Sky”. Polymarket agreed on 9 November, pricing her at 54.5%, with the Philippines second at 25%.
Who is the favourite for Eurovision Asia 2026?
Malaysia’s Aina Abdul: 54.5% to win, 67.5% to top the juries and 38% to top the public vote on Polymarket, read on 9 November.
Can the host country win Eurovision Asia?
It is possible but unlikely. Thailand is 4.5% to win, because Thai residents cannot vote for their own country. The market rates MANG x DAOU much higher for a podium, at 44%.
Are there bookmaker odds on Eurovision Asia?
No fixed-odds bookmaker prices it. The betting is on two prediction markets, Polymarket, which has six Eurovision Asia markets, and Kalshi, which has a winner market.
How is the Eurovision Asia winner decided?
Half by professional juries and half by the public vote, combined country by country, plus a public-only Rest of World vote. Nobody may vote for their own country.
When is the Eurovision Asia 2026 final?
Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 ICT (14:30 CET), from the One Bangkok Forum. It streams free on the Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel. See our viewing guide.
Sources
- Prices: Polymarket Gamma API, about 01:47 UTC on 9 November 2026; mids between best bid and offer; placeholder contracts excluded.
- National selections, songs and staging: this site’s coverage of each final, the official Eurovision Song Contest Asia announcements and Eurovoix’s rehearsal reports.
- Search volume: Google search data from DataForSEO, checked 9 November 2026. Vienna figures: this site’s Eurovision 2026 results.
Predictions are this site’s editorial opinion, not financial advice. 18+. Prediction markets carry risk; check the live board before acting.