Malaysia is a 54.5% favourite to win Eurovision Asia 2026 with five days to go, according to Polymarket’s winner market read at about 01:47 UTC on 9 November. Aina Abdul’s “Bluest Sky” leads all six Eurovision Asia books. The juries look settled at 67.5%, but on the public vote she is only 38% to the Philippines’ 34%. Rehearsals at the One Bangkok Forum began on 8 November, and turnover across the six markets has reached about $79.3K, up from $58.6K on 7 November. Here is the whole board, what moved, and what is quote-shuffling rather than money.
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Photo: Aina Abdul, Malaysia’s act for Bangkok. Official image, Eurovision Song Contest Asia (eurovisionasia.com).
Key takeaways
- Winner: Malaysia 54.5% (bid 53c, offer 56c), Philippines 25%, Vietnam 8.1%, Nepal 8.0%, Laos 5.5%, Thailand 4.5%. The other five are at or below 1.2%.
- Jury book: Malaysia 67.5% on a one-cent spread, with the Philippines on 14.5%. This is the steadiest price in the event.
- Public-vote book: Malaysia 38%, Philippines 34%, South Korea 11.5%. The final is 50% jury, 50% public, so this is where an upset would come from.
- The Philippines fell from about 31% to 25% in the winner market since 7 November, while Vietnam and Nepal roughly doubled — on wide quotes, not on new trades.
- Top 3: Malaysia 78.5%, Philippines 69.5%, Thailand 44%, Vietnam 40.5%. Laos jumped 11.5 points in a day, the day Thinla rehearsed first.
- Kalshi agrees once you read its quotes rather than its stale last trades: Malaysia 52c–58c, the Philippines 23c–30c.
What’s on this page
The winner board · Jury and public books · Top 3, second and third · What moved, and how much to trust it · Kalshi, the other venue · What can still move it · How we would read it
Eurovision Asia odds: the winner board, 7 vs 9 November
Both columns are this site’s reads of Polymarket’s public Gamma API for the Eurovision Asia Winner 2026 market: the evening of 7 November and about 01:47 UTC on 9 November. The headline price is the midpoint between the best bid and best offer, so we show both sides and the last actual trade. Placeholder contracts in the feed (“Country A” to “Country T” and “Other”) are excluded.
| Country | 7 Nov | 9 Nov | Bid / offer | Last trade | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | ~55% | 54.5% | 53 / 56 | 61c | $18.6K |
| Philippines | ~31% | 25.0% | 23 / 27 | 24c | $3.1K |
| Vietnam | ~3.7% | 8.1% | 1.7 / 14.5 | 7.6c | $1.8K |
| Nepal | ~3.9% | 8.0% | 3.5 / 12.5 | 3.5c | $1.7K |
| Laos | ~8% | 5.5% | 4.2 / 6.7 | 6.6c | $1.6K |
| Thailand | ~7.5% | 4.5% | 2.0 / 7.0 | 11c | $1.2K |
| South Korea | ~2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0.8c | $1.2K |
| Mongolia, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Cambodia | ≤1% each | 0.1–0.2% | — | ≤0.2c | ~$1.1K each |
The eleven mids add up to about 107.5% of a one-winner field, against about 114% on 7 November and 144% on 4 November. The spreads keep closing, which is what a market does as more money and more market-makers arrive. Malaysia’s contract alone has taken $18.6K, more than half the winner book’s $33.7K.
Eurovision Asia jury and public-vote odds: one is settled, one is not
The Grand Final result is 50% jury and 50% public vote, combined country by country (section 8.2 of the official voting terms), so Polymarket runs a separate book on each half. Read together, they explain the outright price better than the outright does. Our full guide to the jury and public-vote markets goes through the rules in detail.
| Country | Jury book | Public-vote book | What it says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 67.5% (67 / 68) | 38.0% (29 / 47) | Clear jury favourite; wide public quote |
| Philippines | 14.5% (13 / 16) | 34.0% (31 / 37) | The fan-vote challenger |
| South Korea | 1.4% | 11.5% (10 / 13) | A public-vote profile, not a jury one |
| Laos | 6.8% | 7.3% | Even in both |
| Vietnam | 4.8% | 6.5% | Last public trade 15c, above its mid |
| Thailand | 4.5% | 3.0% | The host cannot be voted for by Thai viewers |
The jury book is the tightest market in the event: a one-cent spread on Malaysia, with $10.1K traded on that line. The public-vote book is the opposite. Malaysia’s bid is 29c and its offer 47c, so its 38% is an average of two prices eighteen cents apart. The Philippines’ quote is tighter, 31c to 37c. On real orders, the phones are close to a coin-flip between the two.
That is the whole case for the Philippines at 25%. CARMELLE needs a big public win and a respectable jury score. Malaysia needs to keep the juries and stay close on the phones. Traders currently put the second outcome at about twice the likelihood of the first.
Top 3, second and third place
The Top 3 market lists eleven independent contracts, each asking whether a country finishes on the podium, so a coherent book sums to about 300%. Its mids sum to about 324%.
| Country | Top 3 | Second place | Third place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 78.5% | 32.5% | 16.0% |
| Philippines | 69.5% | 33.5% | 20.0% |
| Thailand | 44.0% | 19.5% | 20.5% |
| Vietnam | 40.5% | 27.0% | 11.0% |
| Laos | 27.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% |
| South Korea | 20.5% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| Cambodia | 13.0% | 12.7% | 4.3% |
| Mongolia | 11.0% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
Two prices stand out. Thailand is 44% to make the podium but 4.5% to win. The host is priced as a likely bronze, consistent with the rule that nobody may vote for their own country. MANG x DAOU collect no televotes from the biggest audience in the hall. South Korea is joint-favourite for third with Thailand at 20.5%, despite a 1.2% win price, on the strength of its public-vote profile. The second-place book has taken only $2.4K, and its spreads run up to 41 cents wide. Treat it as unpriced.
What moved, and how much to trust it
- Philippines, winner, about 31% → 25%. A real move with trades behind it: the last trade is 24c. It mirrors the public-vote book, where Malaysia came up underneath CARMELLE on 7 November.
- Vietnam, winner, about 3.7% → 8.1%. Partly real: the last trade is 7.6c and the line has taken $1.8K. But the quote runs from 1.7c to 14.5c, so the 8.1% midpoint carries little weight.
- Nepal, winner, about 3.9% → 8.0%. Quotes, not money. The last trade is still 3.5c, the offer is 12.5c, and Polymarket records a six-point move on the day with nothing traded at the new level. Eurovoix ran a profile of Pratik Himal Rai on 8 November, and he rehearses today.
- Laos, Top 3, +11.5 points in a day, to 27.5%, on a 13c-to-42c quote. Thinla was the first act on the Bangkok stage on 8 November, with at least four dancers and a new look. The last Top 3 trade is 12c.
- Thailand, winner, about 7.5% → 4.5%, while it holds 44% for the podium. The market is separating the host’s chance of winning from its chance of placing.
One number worth noting: Gamma reports about $203K of posted liquidity across the six books on 9 November, against about $487K this site recorded on 7 November. Volume is up and resting orders are down. One plausible reading is market-makers stepping back before a binary result. Either way, it makes every midpoint more fragile.
Kalshi, the other venue
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange, has run an Eurovision Asia winner market since 14 September. Its board looks nothing like Polymarket’s if you read last trades, and almost identical if you read quotes:
| Country | Kalshi last trade | Kalshi bid / offer | Polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 6c | 52 / 58 | 54.5% |
| Philippines | 38c | 23 / 30 | 25.0% |
| Vietnam | 79c | none / 40 | 8.1% |
| Thailand | 13c | 2 / 8 | 4.5% |
| Laos | 6c | 6 / 7 | 5.5% |
Kalshi’s last trades sum to 200% of the field, and seven of its eleven contracts have no bid at all. Malaysia’s 6c is a print from before anyone would bid on it. Vietnam’s 79c sits above its own 40c offer. Laos accounts for half of all contracts ever traded there. Read the quotes and the two venues agree to within about a point on the top two.
Rehearsal week: what can still move the board
Laos, Cambodia, Bhutan and Bangladesh completed first rehearsals on 8 November. The other seven, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, take the stage today. Our day-one rehearsal report covers what changed. After that the schedule is short: the Preview Show on Friday 13 November and the Grand Final on Saturday 14 November, both at 20:30 ICT (14:30 CET) at the One Bangkok Forum. Every broadcaster and local start time is here.
The organisers have not said whether the juries mark a dress rehearsal, as Eurovision’s juries do the night before the final. If they do, the jury book has one less unknown than it looks. All six Polymarket markets close on 15 November and resolve on the official Grand Final ranking. Ties are broken on total points, then jury points, then public points.
How we would read it
Malaysia is a fair favourite, not a certainty. At 54.5% the market gives her slightly better than even odds. Most of that comes from the jury book, which is the half traders feel surest about. Remember Vienna in May. Finland went into the Eurovision final as a 41% favourite and finished sixth, and Bulgaria won from 6%. Our Eurovision 2026 results page has the full board.
The upset route runs through the phones. The public-vote book is nearly level between Malaysia and the Philippines once you look at the bids and offers. A televote win for CARMELLE combined with a jury result inside the top three would put her in contention. Her 25% winner price says that is a realistic route, not a long shot.
Treat the movers with suspicion. Nepal’s doubling and Laos’s podium jump came on wide quotes, without trades at the new prices. Vietnam’s move has some money behind it, and Tóc Tiên opens the show in slot one.
South Korea is the public-vote wildcard. JUNHEE is A.C.E’s Park Junhee, an act from an established K-pop group. Section 8.2 counts viewers outside the eleven competing countries as a Rest of World public vote, so an international fanbase counts in full. That would fit an 11.5% public-vote price alongside a 1.4% jury price. It is also why South Korea is joint-favourite for third.
The podium books are where the disagreement is. Thailand at 44% for the top three while 4.5% to win, and South Korea joint-favourite for third at 1.2% to win, are the two prices most likely to move once the full rehearsal week is seen. For the full country-by-country picture, see the Eurovision Asia hub.
Sources
- Polymarket Gamma API, read about 01:47 UTC on 9 November 2026, against this site’s 7 November read. Mid prices are the midpoint of best bid and best offer; placeholder contracts excluded.
- Kalshi trade API, series KXEUROVISIONASIA, read 01:48 UTC on 9 November 2026.
- Rehearsals: Eurovoix, 9 November 2026. Voting rules: Eurovision Asia voting terms, section 8.2, updated 28 August 2026.
Correction, 9 November 2026: the Kalshi quotes in this article first appeared as an earlier read (Malaysia 52c/59c, the Philippines 22c/29c, Thailand 3c/8c, Laos 6c/22c). They now show the 01:48 UTC read on 9 November.
Prediction-market prices move continuously and fastest in the last days before a show. Check the live board before acting on anything here. 18+. Markets carry risk.