CARMELLE is the second favourite to win Eurovision Asia 2026, at 25%, and her route to the title runs through the public vote. Polymarket’s Philippines Eurovision Asia odds, read at about 01:47 UTC on 9 November, put “Sobra-Sobra” at 34% to top the public vote against Malaysia’s 38%, but only 14.5% to top the juries, where Aina Abdul is 67.5%. That makes the CARMELLE Eurovision Asia question a simple one: can she win the public vote by more than she loses the jury vote? She sings sixth of eleven at the One Bangkok Forum on Saturday 14 November, and rehearses on that stage for the first time today. Here is what all six markets say about her, and why her winner price fell.
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Photo: CARMELLE performing “Sobra-Sobra” at Philippine Selection Night. Frame from the official performance video, Eurovision Song Contest Asia (eurovisionasia.com).
Key takeaways
- Winner: Philippines 25% (bid 23c, offer 27c), second to Malaysia at 54.5%. It was about 31% on 7 November.
- Public vote: 34% against Malaysia’s 38%. The Philippines’ quote is 31c–37c; Malaysia’s is 29c–47c. On the best bids, CARMELLE is ahead.
- Jury: 14.5%, second to Malaysia’s 67.5%. This is the number that holds her winner price down.
- Top 3: 69.5%. The market is far more sure she makes the podium than that she wins it. In the second-place book she is about level with Malaysia, 33.5% to 32.5%.
- Kalshi’s 95c Philippines mark is gone. It stood from 10–11 October until 7 November, when it was cleared to 39c. The last trade is now 38c against a 23c–30c quote.
- Nobody resident in the Philippines can vote for her. Every public vote CARMELLE gets must come from the other ten countries or the Rest of World bloc.
What’s on this page
All six books · Why she fell to 25% · The public-vote route · The jury gap and Vienna · Kalshi: the 95c mark · Overseas Filipinos and the Rest of World vote · Sobra-Sobra and the staging · Slot 6 and how to watch · How we would read it · FAQ
CARMELLE Eurovision Asia odds: all six books
Polymarket runs six markets on Eurovision Asia, and the Philippines is priced in all of them. The table sets this site’s read on the evening of 7 November against the read at about 01:47 UTC on 9 November. The price is the midpoint between the best bid and the best offer. Bid, offer and last trade are in cents, and the last column is Malaysia’s price in the same book.
| Book | 7 Nov | 9 Nov (mid) | Bid / offer | Last trade | Malaysia, 9 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | ~31% | 25.0% | 23 / 27 | 24c | 54.5% |
| Public vote | ~34% | 34.0% | 31 / 37 | 37c | 38.0% |
| Jury | ~14.5% | 14.5% | 13 / 16 | 16c | 67.5% |
| Top 3 | ~64% | 69.5% | 66 / 73 | 66c | 78.5% |
| Second place | ~25.5% | 33.5% | 21 / 46 | 16c | 32.5% |
| Third place | ~17% | 20.0% | 6 / 34 | 15c | 16.0% |
Read together: a strong public-vote act, a distant second with the juries and a likely podium finisher. Her winner line has taken about $3.1K, second only to Malaysia’s $18.6K.
The place books are less tidy. Her win, second and third prices sum to 78.5%, nine points above her Top 3 price, which they should match. The second-place book has taken only $2.4K, and her quote there runs from 21c to 46c, so treat “about level with Malaysia for second” as unpriced.
Why the Philippines fell from 31% to 25%
Only her winner price fell between 7 and 9 November: from about 31% (28c against 34c) to 25% (23c against 27c). Polymarket’s one-day change field shows −7 points, and the last trade, 24c, sits inside the new quote. Money changed hands at the lower price.
Her split books did not follow: about 34% on the public vote and 14.5% with the juries on both days. Her Top 3 price rose five and a half points and her second-place price eight.
Where did the six points go? The winner book tightened, its eleven mids summing to about 114% on 7 November and about 107.5% on 9 November. Vietnam (about 3.7% to 8.1%) and Nepal (about 3.9% to 8.0%) doubled on wide quotes. Malaysia barely moved, from about 55% to 54.5%.
Our reading: traders are not saying her support has shrunk, but that her route to the title is narrower than her podium chances. They price her as the likeliest runner-up, and 25% is what is left for the outright.
The public-vote route: 34% against 38%
The Grand Final is decided 50% by professional juries and 50% by the public, combined country by country, under section 8.2 of the official voting terms. Polymarket’s Public Vote Winner market resolves on the country with the most public-vote points.
The mids say Malaysia 38%, the Philippines 34%. The quotes are closer. The Philippines is bid at 31c and offered at 37c; Malaysia is bid at 29c and offered at 47c. Buyers will pay two cents more for a CARMELLE public-vote win than for an Aina Abdul one. Only the sellers price Malaysia higher, and its 38% averages two prices eighteen cents apart. The last trades, 43c on Malaysia and 37c on the Philippines, lean the other way. On real orders the two are close to level.
The trend runs against her. On 4 November the Philippines led this book at about 38.5% to Malaysia’s 27%; by 7 November Malaysia was ahead, 36.5% to 34%. Her own price has held at 34%: Malaysia caught her. Money is thin, too: about $9.3K on the whole book, $3.3K of it on Malaysia and only about $0.9K on the Philippines.
One rule shapes all of this. Under section 3.3 of the voting terms, nobody may vote in the Grand Final for the entry of the territory they live in. So nobody resident in the Philippines can vote for CARMELLE. The domestic public that held 40% of the vote at her national final has no say for her on Saturday. Our guide to the jury and public-vote markets sets out the full rules.
The jury gap, and what Romania learned in Vienna
In the Jury Winner market the Philippines is 14.5%, quoted 13c against 16c on about $2.7K traded. Malaysia is 67.5% on a one-cent spread, with $10.1K on that line. She is a clear second choice there too, since nobody below her has more than about $0.7K traded, but that leaves a 53-point gap in the half no fanbase can touch.
Vienna in May showed what a split result does under a 50/50 rule. From this site’s Eurovision 2026 results data:
| Vienna 2026 | Final place | Televote | Jury | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (DARA) | 1 | 312 (1st) | 204 (1st) | 516 |
| Israel | 2 | 220 | 123 | 343 |
| Romania | 3 | 232 (2nd) | 64 | 296 |
| Australia (Delta Goodrem) | 4 | 122 | 165 (joint 2nd) | 287 |
Romania came second with the public and finished third, 47 points behind Israel. Israel had twelve fewer televote points but 59 more from the juries. Australia, joint second with the juries, finished fourth. The only act to beat everyone was the one that topped both halves.
The lesson is not that a public-vote act cannot win. It is that CARMELLE must top the public vote by more than Malaysia beats her with the juries, and the terms do not publish the points scale that would turn that into a number. As a rough check: if she only wins when she also tops the public vote, a 25% outright against 34% says she converts about three in four of those public wins. Our reading is that this is generous if the public race is as close as the quotes suggest.
Philippines Eurovision Asia odds on Kalshi: the 95c mark is gone
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange, has run a Eurovision Asia winner market since 14 September. For almost a month its Philippines price was the most misleading number this site had to caveat. From this site’s stored reads:
| Read (UTC) | What happened | Philippines last trade | Philippines contracts traded, lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct, 16:12 | Before the jump; no bid | 53c | 83 |
| 11 Oct, 13:06 | About 29 contracts bought the offer | 95c | 112 |
| 2–4 Nov | Board flat; the mark still stands | 95c | 112 |
| 7 Nov, 13:18 | Heavy trading begins | — | 878 |
| 7 Nov, 16:08 | Mark cleared; the day closed at 39c, quoted 27c / 38c | 39c | 1,223 |
| 9 Nov, 01:48 | Bid 23c, offer 30c | 38c | 1,483 |
The 95c came from something under $30 of buying into a contract with no bid, as we set out in our report on the October jump. It took about 1,100 contracts on 7 November, more than ten times the Philippines’ previous history, to clear it.
The 38c last trade is a print, not a price: it sits eight cents above the best offer. Read the quote and Kalshi’s midpoint is 26.5c, within a point and a half of Polymarket’s 25%. The venues now agree on CARMELLE and disagree on Malaysia, whose Kalshi last trade is still 6c against a 52c–58c quote. The Philippines has traded 1,483 contracts there, a quarter of the board’s 5,887; Laos accounts for half.
Neither venue is a bookmaker, and no fixed-odds bookmaker prices Eurovision Asia.
Overseas Filipinos and the Rest of World vote
If CARMELLE’s home audience cannot vote for her, where does a 34% public-vote price come from? The rules leave two places, and both are about where voters live, not their nationality:
- Residents of the other ten competing countries. A Filipino living in Malaysia, Thailand or South Korea votes in that country’s public vote, and may vote for the Philippines, because the ban only covers the country you live in.
- The Rest of World bloc. Viewers anywhere outside the eleven take part in the public vote only. Section 8.2 aggregates them into one additional Rest of World vote, with no jury half.
That is where the diaspora argument comes in. Since August this site has treated overseas Filipinos as the most organised fan electorate in the field, and that is the main reason the Philippines has been priced as a public-vote act. This is analysis, not data: there are no published figures on who will vote, or from where.
Three rules cap how far any diaspora can carry an entry. Every voter must spread their votes across at least three countries, so each committed fan also hands votes to two rivals. No voter can give one entry more than 16. And the Rest of World vote counts as one bloc however many join it; the terms do not say how it is weighted against the eleven countries’ votes.
The Rest of World is also contested. Google search data from DataForSEO (monthly averages, checked 9 November) puts the Philippine act ahead of Malaysia’s in the US and the UK, but not ahead of everyone:
| Search term | United States | United Kingdom | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|
| carmelle | 480 | 110 | 1,600 |
| aina abdul | 70 | 50 | — |
| toc tien | 720 | 30 | — |
| junhee | 8,100 | 1,300 | — |
| eurovision asia philippines | 30 | 20 | 390 |
In the US, “carmelle” is searched about seven times as often as “aina abdul”. But Tóc Tiên draws more US searches, and “junhee” far more, which fits South Korea’s 11.5% public-vote price, though name searches also catch other people with the name. At home, “eurovision asia” runs at about 2,400 a month in the Philippines against about 1,000 in Malaysia, but those are the viewers who cannot vote for her.
Engagement numbers put her near the top, but not first. Her selection-night performance passed 1.3 million views on the Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel by 29 September, by this site’s count. On the organisers’ Instagram, Delta Goodrem, Australia’s act in Vienna, recorded every Eurovision Asia song in its original language, and CARMELLE returned the favour with “the best bit” of “Eclipse”. At about 02:00 UTC on 9 November that swap (posted 30 October) had about 9,700 likes. Of the covers in our read only Malaysia’s had more, about 14,200; Laos had about 6,800 and South Korea about 5,700, though older posts have had longer to collect likes. Likes show the size of a following, not where it lives, which is what the voting rules care about.
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Sobra-Sobra: the selection night, the song and the Bangkok staging
CARMELLE won Pili, Pinas!: Philippine Selection Night at the New Frontier Theater in Quezon City on 30 August, singing ninth of ten. The vote was 40% professional jury, 40% Philippine public and 20% rest of the world. Saga was second with “Broken Beyond Repair” and JM dela Cerna & Marielle Montellano third with “Mapadama (Make You Feel)”. Our report from the night has the full result and the seven-member jury.
“Sobra-Sobra (Too Much)” was written by Nica del Rosario and Mat Olavides, and produced by Olavides. It is bilingual dance-pop in Filipino and English, with a rap section and Filipino percussion built into the track: the kulintang, a row of gongs, and the kubing, a bamboo jaw harp.
CARMELLE is Carmelle Allyza San Juan Collado, 19, from Sipocot in Camarines Sur. In 2019 she won seven gold medals at the World Championships of Performing Arts and finished first runner-up on season 4 of The Voice Kids. She won Tawag ng Tanghalan: The School Showdown in January 2025, then spent 120 days in the Pinoy Big Brother house. Her full background is on our Philippines country page.
The Bangkok version is a rebuild. Eurovoix reported on 15 October that she has new choreography, with input from her mother, Jessa, her composers and ABS-CBN Music, alongside vocal stamina training. She said the staging will tell a story: “I will tell you what it means to be Filipina”. The kulintang returns on stage. ABS-CBN’s production head, Jessamae Samson, said in the broadcaster’s send-off release that her singing is a given, and that what excites the team is seeing her “dance and sing at the same time, and rap, in the global stage”.
On 7 November Eurovoix reported that the delegation was teasing a “leveled-up” performance without showing it. That day the delegations travelled to Thailand, and CARMELLE was first to arrive. She rehearses today, 9 November, and there are no reports yet. In October this site worried that a song doing this much might leave a jury hearing the parts rather than the whole. The organisers have posted a clip of every first rehearsal so far; hers would be the first evidence either way.
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Slot 6 for Sobra-Sobra, and how the Philippines watches
CARMELLE sings sixth of eleven, the middle of the show. Bhutan’s Nyendra comes before her. After her come Bangladesh’s Beatmosphere, among the lowest-priced acts in the winner market, and then the host, Thailand’s MANG x DAOU. Malaysia closes the show in slot 11.
Vienna is a reminder not to overrate the draw: DARA won from slot 12 of 25, also mid-show, while Austria closed and finished 24th. Our reading: slot 6 neither helps nor hurts CARMELLE much, and being followed by a song the market does not rate gives her a little room to stay in viewers’ minds.
In the Philippines the Grand Final starts at 21:30 Philippine time on Saturday 14 November (20:30 in Bangkok, 13:30 UTC). The organisers list ALLTV and A2Z, credited to ABS-CBN. ABS-CBN’s own release also names iWant, Kapamilya Channel and Kapamilya Online Live, and gives the ALLTV channel as ALLTV2. Worldwide, the show streams free on the Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel. Our viewing guide has every country’s start time.
CARMELLE Eurovision Asia chances: how we would read them
25% is a coherent price, not a long shot. She is second in the winner, jury and public-vote books, with nobody close behind in any of them. If Malaysia slips, the Philippines is the likeliest beneficiary.
The public race is closer than the mids say. On the best bids CARMELLE leads, 31c to 29c; Malaysia leads on offers and on the last trade.
The jury number is the constraint. 14.5% against 67.5% is a big gap, and Romania showed in May that a strong public score does not rescue a weak jury one. A rehearsal that moves the jury book would do more for her winner price than any amount of fan activity.
The podium is where the market is surest. At 69.5% for the top three and 33.5% for second, she is priced as the likeliest runner-up.
Watch three things this week: today’s rehearsal clip and the jury book’s response; whether South Korea’s public-vote price grows, since JUNHEE competes with her for the Rest of World vote; and whether Kalshi’s quote and Polymarket’s mid stay together. Every country’s profile and live board is on the Eurovision Asia hub.
FAQ
Can CARMELLE win Eurovision Asia?
Yes. She is the second favourite at 25% on Polymarket (read 9 November), behind Malaysia’s Aina Abdul at 54.5%. Her route is the public vote, where she is 34% to Malaysia’s 38%. With the juries she is 14.5%.
What are the Philippines’ Eurovision Asia odds on Kalshi?
The last trade is 38c, but the live quote is 23c to 30c, which agrees with Polymarket. The 95c mark that stood from 10–11 October was cleared on 7 November. No fixed-odds bookmaker prices Eurovision Asia.
Can people in the Philippines vote for CARMELLE?
No. Under section 3.3 of the voting terms, nobody may vote for the entry of the country they live in. Filipinos living elsewhere can vote for her, in the public vote of the country they live in or in the Rest of World vote.
When does CARMELLE perform?
Sixth of eleven in the Grand Final on Saturday 14 November, which starts at 20:30 in Bangkok and 21:30 in the Philippines. Her first rehearsal is today, 9 November.
Where can I watch Eurovision Asia in the Philippines?
On ALLTV and A2Z, credited to ABS-CBN, from 21:30. ABS-CBN also lists iWant, Kapamilya Channel and Kapamilya Online Live. The show streams free worldwide on the Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel.
Who wrote Sobra-Sobra?
Nica del Rosario and Mat Olavides, with Olavides producing. “Sobra-Sobra (Too Much)” is bilingual Filipino and English dance-pop with a rap section, kulintang and kubing.
Sources
- Polymarket Gamma API, about 01:47 UTC on 9 November 2026, against this site’s 4 and 7 November reads. Mids are best bid and offer midpoints; placeholder contracts excluded.
- Kalshi public API, series KXEUROVISIONASIA, read 01:48 UTC on 9 November 2026, and this site’s stored reads from 10 October to 7 November.
- Eurovision Song Contest Asia voting terms, sections 3.3, 6, 6.1 and 8.2, last updated 28 August 2026. Broadcasters and start times: the organisers’ how-to-watch page and their 7 November Instagram post. Running order: official announcement, 29 October.
- Eurovoix: 30 August (result and jury), 15 October (staging and stamina training), 1 November (profile) and 7 November (performance teasers). ABS-CBN news release on the send-off, dated 1 November 2026.
- Search volumes: Google search data from DataForSEO, monthly averages, checked 9 November 2026. Instagram likes: Eurovision Song Contest Asia’s official account, read about 02:00 UTC on 9 November. YouTube views and biography: this site’s Philippines country profile.
- Vienna 2026 televote and jury totals: this site’s Eurovision 2026 results data.
18+. Prediction-market prices are not bookmaker odds; they move quickly in rehearsal week and can move without trades on thin books. Check the live board before acting.