The eleven Eurovision Asia 2026 juries had already voted by the time these closing prices were read. Eurovoix dated the Jury Final to Friday 13 November, and this site read all six Polymarket books at 17:04 UTC that evening — hours after the juries had ranked the songs. Half of the Eurovision Asia 2026 result already exists on paper. Nobody trading these markets can see it.
18+ | New customers only | T&Cs apply | Please gamble responsibly
Key takeaways from the closing book
- Malaysia closes favourite at 60.5% in the outright winner market — its first fall of the week, from 61.5% on 12 November.
- The Philippines took the public-vote lead, from 34.5% to 46.5% in a single day, passing Malaysia, which fell from 40.0% to 35.0%.
- Malaysia strengthened with the juries to 72.0%, on the very day the juries actually voted.
- Volume surged about 42% across the six books in 24 hours, to roughly $147,300 — and the quotes got wider, not tighter, on four of six books.
- The market is pricing a split result: a Malaysian jury win and a Filipino public win, with the margin deciding the trophy.
The Eurovision Asia closing board: all six books
This is the last full reading before the Grand Final. Every figure is a Polymarket mid — halfway between the best bid and the best offer — taken at 17:04 UTC on 13 November 2026. Band width is the sum of the offers minus the sum of the bids, in percentage points, measured against what the book must total: 100 for the five one-winner books, 300 for the Top 3 book.
| Book | Leader | Mid | Band width | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | Malaysia | 60.5% | 17.2 pts of 100 | $67.4K |
| Top 3 | Malaysia | 86.5% | 59.0 pts of 300 | $26.4K |
| Jury vote winner | Malaysia | 72.0% | 41.8 pts of 100 | $18.9K |
| Public vote winner | Philippines | 46.5% | 35.6 pts of 100 | $16.2K |
| 3rd place | Laos | 20.1% | 62.2 pts of 100 | $15.6K |
| 2nd place | Philippines | 37.5% | 134.9 pts of 100 | $2.9K |
The ordering of trust has not changed all week, and it survives the close. The winner book is by far the tightest, at 17.2 points of band on a market that must total 100. The Top 3 book is next on a like-for-like basis: 59.0 points against a 300-point total is proportionally about 20%. The two split books are looser. The 3rd-place book is loose. The 2nd-place book is 134.9 points wide on a 100-point market, which is not a price at all, and this site does not quote it. That position has been consistent since the place books first misfired on 11 November.
The Eurovision Asia winner market, country by country
The full closing winner book. Bids and offers are shown because, on a thin market, the gap between them matters more than the mid.
| Country | Act | Bid | Mid | Offer | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | Aina Abdul | 59.0% | 60.5% | 62.0% | $35.2K |
| Philippines | CARMELLE | 29.0% | 31.0% | 33.0% | $9.1K |
| Vietnam | Tóc Tiên | 3.3% | 5.35% | 7.4% | $3.0K |
| South Korea | JUNHEE | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | $2.6K |
| Thailand | MANG x DAOU | 1.1% | 1.55% | 2.0% | $2.2K |
| Laos | Thinla | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | $3.6K |
| Nepal | Pratik Himal Rai | 0.2% | 0.85% | 1.5% | $3.4K |
| Cambodia | Monetrey | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | $2.0K |
| Bhutan | Nyendra | 0.1% | 0.15% | 0.2% | $2.2K |
| Bangladesh | Beatmosphere | 0.1% | 0.15% | 0.2% | $1.9K |
| Mongolia | Beck | 0.1% | 0.15% | 0.2% | $2.2K |
Two things stand out. The first is how concentrated the money is: Malaysia alone carries $35.2K of the winner book’s $67.4K, and the top two countries hold about two-thirds of it. The second is Thailand. The host nation was quoted at 5.0% on 12 November and closed at 1.55%, a collapse that ran through every book — its Top 3 price fell from 35.0% to 19.0% in the same 24 hours. No reported incident explains it; the stage reports have been positive. What the market did, it did quietly and in one day.
Why the jury book is now a market on a finished event
This is the part worth understanding before tomorrow. The Jury Final is not a formality — it is where the jury half of the Eurovision Asia 2026 result is actually decided. Eurovoix describes it as the second full dress rehearsal, and says it “is voted on by the eleven juries from the participating countries”. Each jury has five members, each ranks the songs, and the average rank produces that country’s 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points.
So by 17:04 UTC on 13 November, when this reading was taken, the jury scoreboard already existed. The jury-winner market was no longer pricing an uncertain future event. It was pricing an unpublished past one. No rehearsal, no performance and no viewer can change it now; only the market’s estimate of it can move.
On that evening the market became more confident, not less: Malaysia rose from 69.5% to 72.0%. The dated series for Malaysia in the jury book now reads 59.0% on 9 November, 66.0% on the 10th, 70.0% on the 11th, 69.5% on the 12th and 72.0% at the close.
One caveat that is easy to miss. Nobody votes for their own country, so each of the eleven panels distributes its points among the other ten. A single national jury is worth at most twelve of a possible 120 jury points. Malaysia’s own five jurors — the first panel any country published, headed by AG Coco — have no influence whatsoever on Malaysia’s score.
The public vote flipped to the Philippines
The single largest move of the week happened in the public-vote market. The Philippines went from 34.5% to 46.5% and Malaysia from 40.0% to 35.0%: a 17-point swing in the gap between them in one day. It is a lead the Philippines has held before: it led the public-vote book on 4 November, at about 38.5%, before Malaysia took that book over from 7 November and held it for six straight readings. What closed on 13 November is the recapture, not a first.
Malaysia’s public-vote series tells the story on its own: 41.5% on 9 November, 42.5% on the 10th, 44.0% on the 11th, 40.0% on the 12th, and 35.0% at the close. It rose for three days and has now fallen for two. This site read the public book in detail on 10 November, when Malaysia still led it; that reading is history now, and this one replaces it.
The closing public book also contains the starkest profile on the board. Laos is quoted at 12.8% to win the public vote and 0.35% to win the jury vote — a country the market believes can draw votes from viewers in volume and nothing at all from professional panels. It is the diaspora-and-bloc profile this site mapped on 10 November, priced.
The 50/50 arithmetic that decides Eurovision Asia 2026
Under section 8.2 of the official Voting Terms, the Grand Final is scored 50% jury and 50% public vote. That is the rule that makes the two split books worth watching, and it is what the closing prices are describing:
| Country | Jury book | Public book | Outright |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 72.0% | 35.0% | 60.5% |
| Philippines | 2.8% | 46.5% | 31.0% |
| Vietnam | 7.75% | 6.5% | 5.35% |
| Laos | 0.35% | 12.8% | 1.0% |
| South Korea | 1.35% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Thailand | 3.85% | 5.85% | 1.55% |
Read across the top two rows and the shape of the contest appears. The market thinks Malaysia wins the jury half comfortably and loses the public half; it thinks the Philippines does the reverse, and by a smaller margin. Malaysia’s 60.5% outright is, in effect, a bet that a strong jury win plus a respectable public second place beats a strong public win plus a weak jury return.
It is worth being precise about what the split books do and do not say, because this is where betting markets on new contests are most often misread. Winning the jury vote is not the same as winning the jury half by a margin that survives the public half. A country can top the jury scoreboard narrowly and still lose the trophy to a country that wins the televote by a landslide. The jury book pays out on who finishes first with the juries, not on the size of the lead — and the size of the lead is exactly what decides the contest.
Money surged, and the quotes got wider
The six books added roughly $43,400 in 24 hours, from about $104,000 to about $147,300 — a rise of around 42%, and comfortably the largest single-day increase of contest week. The daily series is about $6,800, then $4,800, then $11,000, then $43,400.
That matters because this site got the trend wrong earlier in the week. On 11 November it wrote that contest week was adding money more slowly each day; it corrected that on the 12th, and the closing figure settles it. Two points were never a trend, and the money did what money normally does before a resolution: it arrived at the end.
The more interesting half is what happened to the quotes. On 12 November five of the six books tightened. At the close, four of six went the other way:
| Book | Band, 12 Nov | Band, 13 Nov | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 12.1 | 17.2 | Wider |
| Top 3 | 38.0 | 59.0 | Wider |
| Public vote | 28.5 | 35.6 | Wider |
| Jury vote | 39.8 | 41.8 | Wider |
| 3rd place | 89.7 | 62.2 | Tighter |
| 2nd place | 154.6 | 134.9 | Tighter |
Record volume and wider spreads sound contradictory, but they usually travel together just before an event resolves. Whoever has been posting the tight two-sided quotes all week has least appetite for holding inventory into a result they cannot hedge, so the quotes thin out at precisely the moment the takers arrive. The practical consequence for anyone reading these numbers: at the close, the mid is a weaker guide than it was on Wednesday, and the bid and the offer are worth reading separately.
Kalshi’s closing read
Kalshi has listed an eleven-country Eurovision Asia winner market since 14 September 2026, and it remains far smaller than Polymarket’s. At the same 17:04 UTC reading, lifetime board volume was about 11,600 contracts, against Polymarket’s $147,300 across six books.
Two contracts were properly two-sided, and both agreed with Polymarket: Malaysia 57c bid against a 61c offer, and the Philippines 28c bid against a 33c offer. Polymarket closed those two at 60.5% and 31.0%. Five of the eleven contracts had no bid at all.
The rule this site has applied to Kalshi for four consecutive days holds at the close: read the bid, not the last trade. Bhutan illustrates why. Its last trade printed at 15c while its best offer sat at 2c — that is, the market would sell you the same contract for a seventh of the price the tape implies. Mongolia and Bangladesh show the same pattern at 6c last against a 4c offer, and Vietnam’s last trade of 3c printed below its own 4c bid. Those are stale marks on a thin board, not prices. Laos, meanwhile, still carries about a third of all lifetime volume on the board at a 2c mark with no bid behind it — the single oddest feature of this market since it opened.
The place books still do not reconcile
One internal check is worth recording before settlement, because it is the clearest measure of how much of this board is noise. A country’s chances of winning, finishing second and finishing third should add up to exactly its Top 3 price. At the close they do not:
| Country | Win + 2nd + 3rd | Top 3 book | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 97.0% | 86.5% | +10.5 |
| Thailand | 28.05% | 19.0% | +9.05 |
| Nepal | 10.85% | 3.4% | +7.45 |
| Philippines | 84.2% | 78.0% | +6.2 |
| Cambodia | 15.4% | 20.5% | −5.1 |
| Vietnam | 37.85% | 38.0% | −0.15 |
Almost all of that discrepancy traces to one book. Strip out the 2nd-place market — the one 134.9 points wide — and the rest of the board is broadly coherent; Vietnam reconciles to within two-tenths of a point. Nepal is the clearest single absurdity: it is quoted at 9.85% to finish second and 0.15% to finish third, which would make it about sixty-five times likelier to take the runner-up slot than the one below it. That is a quoting artefact on a market with under $100 of volume behind it, and it is the reason this site has declined to publish a 2nd-place price all week.
What settles tomorrow, and the one disclosure risk
All six books settle on the official result as published. That makes one unresolved question genuinely relevant to anyone holding a position: whether the organisers publish a jury/public split at all.
The outright, Top 3, 2nd and 3rd books only need a finishing order, which will certainly be published. The jury and public books need the two halves reported separately. Across the entire 2026 selection season the organisers released a full scoreboard for exactly one national selection, South Korea’s. If Saturday’s result arrives as a running order of places without the split behind it, roughly $35,000 of open positions across the two split books have nothing clean to settle against.
That is a disclosure risk, not an integrity one, and it is worth stating the distinction plainly. Separately, the footer of the official Voting Terms now carries a “voting independently verified by” line beside a Forvis Mazars logo, while section 7.4 of the same document says the count is verified by Voxovation, the contest’s own producer. Two claims about who verifies the count sit on one official page. An independent verifier being engaged is the right answer; the organisers have simply published nothing describing its scope.
How to watch the Eurovision Asia 2026 Grand Final
The Grand Final is on Saturday 14 November at 20:30 ICT, which is 14:30 CET and 13:30 UTC, from the One Bangkok Forum, hosted by Woody Milintachinda and Cindy Bishop. The official how-to-watch page states that time verbatim. Note that fan-press listings pairing “19:30 ICT” with “14:30 CET” contradict themselves, since Indochina Time runs six hours ahead of Central European Time; the official page is the one to trust. This site has a full guide to watching the Grand Final.
Vietnam opens the show and Malaysia closes it. The eleven jury results will be read out by national spokespersons, each revealing their panel’s 8, 10 and 12 points, with Vice Ganda announcing for the Philippines and Nurin Razmyn for Malaysia.
The full running order is Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Bhutan, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand, South Korea, Nepal and Malaysia. Country-by-country prices, the running order and the live Grand Final panel are on the Eurovision Asia hub, and this site’s wider market coverage sits on the winner odds page and the bookmakers page.
A closing note on what these numbers are. No fixed-odds bookmaker prices Eurovision Asia. Everything above is a prediction-market quote on a young, thin book, read once and stamped with the minute it was read. Prices move; this page will not. If you are betting on Saturday, bet what you can afford to lose.