Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final Predictions: Who Qualifies from SF1 and SF2?

The semi-finals are where Eurovision dreams die. Thirty countries will line up across two nights in Vienna, and ten from each will be sent packing before the Grand Final on May 16. Getting your semi-final predictions right is genuinely harder than picking the winner — and this year, it's even trickier than usual.

Why? Because the juries are back in the semi-finals for the first time since their removal. The 50/50 jury-televote split changes the qualification calculus completely. Songs that would have sneaked through on pure public appeal now need to convince professional panels too. That's a structural shift worth understanding before you place a single bet.

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I've cross-referenced bookmaker qualification odds, the 168,000-voter Big Poll, Eurojury national panel rankings, ESC Insight's statistical model, Polymarket prediction markets, and YouTube/Spotify streaming data to build these predictions. No guesswork — just data.

Semi-Final 1: Tuesday 12 May — The Easier Half

Semi-Final 1 has three near-certainties and a relatively clear top ten. The running order has been drawn, and positional advantages matter more than most fans realise — ESC Insight's model shows late-half positions historically outperform early slots by 6-8%.

Here's the full running order with my qualification verdict for each of the 15 competing entries. Germany and Italy also perform but are already qualified for the Grand Final.

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My 10 SF1 Qualifiers

1. Finland — Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen — "Liekinheitin" (Running Order 7)

The outright contest favourite at 6/4 across bookmakers. Finland holds the #1 spot in betting odds, fan polls, OGAE rankings, and Polymarket simultaneously — that kind of cross-platform consensus is almost unprecedented. Drawing position 7 gives them a solid mid-half slot. Qualification probability: 99%.

2. Greece — Akylas — "Ferto" (Running Order 4)

Greece brings a genuinely explosive performance that Polymarket prices at 17% to win the televote outright. Drawing position 4 is early, but ESC Insight's model shows a +6.5% boost from the running order. The streaming data backs this up — Ferto sits 2nd with 317,000 YouTube views. Qualification probability: 99%.

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3. Sweden — FELICIA — "My System" (Running Order 2)

Sweden's track record at Eurovision is unmatched — they've qualified from every semi-final they've ever competed in. FELICIA draws the dreaded position 2, which historically underperforms, but Sweden's jury pedigree should compensate. Bookmakers have them at 97-98% to qualify. Qualification probability: 98%.

4. Israel — Noam Bettan — "Michelle" (Running Order 10)

This is where the jury-televote dynamic gets fascinating. Polymarket gives Israel a staggering 38% chance of winning the televote outright but near-zero from juries. With the 50/50 split restored, Israel's qualification is secure but their final placement is the real question. Position 10 — dead centre of the second half — is premium real estate. Qualification probability: 98%.

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5. Croatia — LELEK — "Andromeda" (Running Order 3)

After Baby Lasagna's sensation in 2024, Croatia carries serious momentum. LELEK sits 5th in the Big Poll with 347 points and benefits from the Balkan voting bloc. Position 3 is slightly early but manageable for a strong entry. Qualification probability: 95%.

6. Lithuania — Lion Ceccah — "Sólo Quiero Más" (Running Order 12)

Drawing position 12 puts Lithuania in the recency-bias sweet spot. The song has strong dual-vote potential — catchy enough for the public, polished enough for juries. The Eurojury rankings back this with a solid mid-table score. Qualification probability: 90%.

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7. Moldova — Satoshi — "Viva, Moldova!" (Running Order 1)

Opening the show is historically brutal — but Moldova's party anthems are built for early-slot survival. They've qualified 8 times out of 15 semi-final appearances, and this patriotic banger has the energy to wake up a cold audience. Qualification probability: 88%.

8. Serbia — LAVINA — "Kraj Mene" (Running Order 15)

Closing the semi-final is one of the strongest positions available. Serbia benefits from both the recency effect and the Balkan diaspora vote. LAVINA's emotional ballad should land well with juries too. Qualification probability: 85%.

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9. Poland — ALICJA — "Pray" (Running Order 14)

Poland draws the penultimate slot — historically excellent. ALICJA returns to Eurovision with a polished pop track that should score well in the jury-restored format. The Polish diaspora across Europe provides a reliable televote floor. Qualification probability: 78%.

10. Belgium — ESSYLA — "Dancing on the Ice" (Running Order 11)

This is the tightest call in SF1. Belgium occupies the 10th qualifier spot in most projections, but the margin over Portugal is slim. Drawing position 11 helps, and the jury-friendly production gives ESSYLA an edge in the new 50/50 format. Qualification probability: 72%.

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The SF1 Bubble — Who Misses Out

Portugal — Bandidos do Cante — "Rosa" (RO 5): A beautiful traditional piece that could charm juries but may struggle for televotes. The biggest heartbreak candidate at 45% qualification odds.

Estonia — Vanilla Ninja — "Too Epic To Be True" (RO 9): The nostalgic comeback angle is fun, but the song hasn't gained traction in polls or streaming. 35% odds.

San Marino — SENHIT — "Superstar" (RO 13): SENHIT is a Eurovision veteran and her Boy George collaboration grabbed headlines, but San Marino's voting ceiling is cruelly low. 30% odds.

Georgia — Bzikebi — "On Replay" (RO 6): Drawing position 6 doesn't help in a stacked first half. The fan community is lukewarm. 25% odds.

Montenegro — Tamara Živković — "Nova Zora" (RO 8): Montenegro's track record in semi-finals is grim — they've failed to qualify far more often than they've made it through. Position 8 is decent but the song lacks standout moments. 15% odds.

Semi-Final 2: Thursday 14 May — The Bloodbath

Semi-Final 2 is significantly more competitive than SF1. Where SF1 has 3-4 near-locks and a clear pecking order, SF2 is packed with strong entries fighting for 10 spots. The qualification battle from 6th to 12th is essentially a coin flip.

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France, Austria, and the United Kingdom also perform during SF2 but are auto-qualified for the Grand Final. Here are the 15 competing entries.

My 10 SF2 Qualifiers

1. Australia — Delta Goodrem — "Eclipse" (Running Order 13)

Delta Goodrem is arguably the biggest name competing in Vienna. Polymarket gives Australia a 34% chance of winning the jury vote — the highest of any entry. Drawing 13th is a strong late-show position. The OLBG semifinal analysis has Australia leading the SF2 field. Qualification probability: 99%.

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2. Denmark — Søren Torpegaard Lund — "Før Vi Går Hjem" (Running Order 12)

Denmark topped the Eurojury with 109 points — the highest score of any entry. They're #2 in the Big Poll with 168,000 voters. Position 12 keeps them in the crucial recency window. If you're looking for betting value, Denmark at 6/1 for the overall win is one of the sharpest prices available. Qualification probability: 98%.

3. Ukraine — Leléka — "Ridnym" (Running Order 14)

Ukraine carries both sympathy votes and genuine quality. Leléka's entry has strong emotional resonance, and the penultimate position is historically powerful. Bookmakers have Ukraine at extremely short odds to qualify. Qualification probability: 98%.

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4. Romania — Alexandra Căpitănescu — "Choke Me" (Running Order 3)

The biggest dark horse story of Eurovision 2026. Romania's odds crashed from 100/1 to 25/1 — the sharpest movement of any entry this cycle. The controversial title generates attention, and fan ratings sit at 4.04/5. Position 3 is early but she's got the charisma to make it work. Qualification probability: 91%.

5. Cyprus — Antigoni — "JALLA" (Running Order 9)

Cyprus is quietly building momentum. Antigoni sits 4th in the fan polls, 6th in Eurojury — that's the dual-vote profile that thrives in the restored jury format. Drawing the centre-piece position 9 is ideal. At 50/1 for the overall win, qualification is the floor here. Qualification probability: 86%.

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6. Norway — JONAS LOVV — "YA YA YA"

Norway's entry has the kind of infectious energy that translates well to the televote. The fan community rates it highly, and Norway's recent Eurovision track record has been solid. Bookmakers give them around 82% qualification odds. Qualification probability: 82%.

7. Malta — AIDAN — "Bella"

Malta has struggled in recent years but AIDAN's entry has genuine charm. The song polls well in fan communities, and the jury-friendly production should help in the restored format. Qualification probability: 80%.

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8. Bulgaria — DARA — "Bangaranga" (Running Order 1)

Opening SF2 is a tough draw, but DARA has 210,000 YouTube views — 5th highest in the streaming rankings. The energetic performance should overcome the positional disadvantage. Qualification probability: 78%.

9. Czechia — Daniel Zizka — "CROSSROADS" (Running Order 5)

Czechia has become increasingly competitive at Eurovision in recent years. Drawing position 5 is mid-pack and the song has a modern, jury-friendly sound. This feels like a safe qualifier but not a Grand Final contender. Qualification probability: 70%.

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10. Switzerland — Veronica Fusaro — "Alice" (Running Order 8)

After Nemo's win in 2024, Switzerland enters with heightened expectations. Veronica Fusaro's "Alice" has a delicate quality that should score well with juries. Position 8 is solid. This is the tightest 10th-qualifier battle in SF2 — Albania, Armenia, and Latvia are all within striking distance. Qualification probability: 65%.

The SF2 Bubble — Who Misses Out

Albania — Alis — "Nân" (RO 15): Closing the show is a powerful position, but Albania's voting base is limited. The song is respected but may lack the mass appeal needed. 40% odds.

Armenia — SIMÓN — "Paloma Rumba" (RO 7): A Latin-flavoured entry that's fun but faces stiff competition from stronger entries in the same style. 35% odds.

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Latvia — Atvara — "Ēnā" (RO 11): A hauntingly beautiful entry that could charm juries, but Latvia's televote support is historically weak. Position 11 helps but probably not enough. 30% odds.

Azerbaijan — JIVA — "Just Go" (RO 2): Drawing position 2 in a stacked semi-final is brutal. Azerbaijan has a decent track record but this entry hasn't broken through in polls or streaming. 25% odds.

Luxembourg — Eva Marija — "Mother Nature" (RO 4): Luxembourg's return to Eurovision in 2024 was a fairy tale, but the sequel rarely matches the original. Fan buzz has been muted. 20% odds.

The Jury Factor: Why 2026 Is Different

The return of juries to the semi-finals is the single biggest structural change this year. In recent editions, the semi-finals were decided purely by televote, which allowed entries with strong diaspora support or viral moments to qualify regardless of musical quality.

Now, 50% of the semi-final score comes from professional juries. This fundamentally reshapes qualification. Entries with polished production, strong vocals, and sophisticated arrangements get a significant boost. Party anthems and novelty acts that would have cruised through on televote alone now need jury approval too.

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The countries that benefit most from the jury return are Denmark, Australia, France (already qualified), and Switzerland — entries with sophisticated arrangements that juries historically reward. The countries most at risk are those relying heavily on televote spectacle without the vocal or compositional substance that juries value.

Betting on Semi-Final Qualifiers

The qualification markets at Betfred offer interesting angles. Rather than betting on who wins each semi-final (dominated by Finland in SF1 and Australia/Denmark in SF2), look at the semi-final qualifier accumulators. Combining 3-4 near-certain qualifiers at short odds builds a respectable accumulator.

For more adventurous punters, the "to qualify" market for borderline entries like Portugal at 45% in SF1 or Albania at 40% in SF2 offers genuine value if your research suggests the bookmakers have them wrong. Check our full odds breakdown for the Grand Final winner market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How many countries qualify from each Eurovision 2026 semi-final?

Ten countries qualify from each semi-final, meaning 20 of the 30 semi-final entries advance to the Grand Final on May 16. The remaining 10 are eliminated. The Grand Final features 25 acts total — the 20 qualifiers plus the Big Four (France, Germany, Italy, UK) and host nation Austria.

When are the Eurovision 2026 semi-finals?

Semi-Final 1 takes place on Tuesday 12 May 2026 and Semi-Final 2 on Thursday 14 May 2026, both at 21:00 CEST from the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria. The Grand Final follows on Saturday 16 May.

Do juries vote in the Eurovision 2026 semi-finals?

Yes — and this is the biggest change for 2026. Juries have returned to the semi-finals with a 50/50 split alongside the televote. This means qualification is no longer determined by public voting alone. Entries need to appeal to both professional jury panels and the viewing public to progress.

Which countries are already qualified for the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Five countries are auto-qualified: the Big Four (France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom) and the host nation Austria. These five perform in the semi-finals (to be showcased and to boost viewing figures) but their results don't count — they go straight to the Grand Final regardless.

Which countries withdrew from Eurovision 2026?

Five countries have withdrawn in protest at Israel's participation: Spain, Ireland, Iceland, Slovenia, and the Netherlands. This reduces the overall field from 40 to 35 entries. Read more in our coverage of the boycott and open letter.