Israel has fallen from 95.2% to 88.45% on Polymarket’s Eurovision 2027 participants board in six days, on about $1,000 of trading and with no public news behind it that we can find. In the same week Belgium firmed from 73% to 87.5% as the withdrawal window closed with VRT still in, Moldova traded for the first time ever — at 99¢, a week after confirming — and Serbia confirmed without having a contract to move. Here is the board as of 22 October, and what we make of each move.
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Illustration: a row of empty chairs, each under its own light. Generated image — no real venue or person depicted.
Key takeaways
- Israel 95.2% → 88.45%, last trade 84.4¢. KAN confirmed its participation in July and the EBU has said it will not vote on Israel again. We can find no new reason for the drop.
- Belgium 73% → 87.5% on about $1,600 — the most money on any contract this week. VRT confirmed in September and did not pull out before the penalty-free deadline.
- Moldova traded for the first time, at 99¢. We said on 16 October it belonged in the high 90s.
- Spain’s last trade fell to 9.5¢, well below its 17.3% midpoint. RTVE’s board vote is still unreported.
- Serbia confirmed on 20 October, taking the field to 33. It has no contract, so the board cannot price it.
- Slovenia and Iceland both fell, to 20.5% and 12%.
What’s on this page
The board, 16 vs 22 October · Israel: a drop without a reason · Belgium: the deadline passed · Moldova: priced at last · Spain, Slovenia and Iceland · What the board cannot see · Where the money went · How we read it
The board, 16 vs 22 October
Both columns are this site’s reads of Polymarket’s public API: 01:22 UTC on 16 October and 03:03 UTC on 22 October. The figure Polymarket displays is the midpoint between the best bid and the best offer, so we show both and the last trade.
| Country | 16 Oct | 22 Oct | Move | Bid / offer | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 97.25% | 97.25% | 0.00 | 95.3 / 99.2 | 95.3¢ |
| Italy | 96.75% | 96.75% | 0.00 | 95.6 / 97.9 | 97.8¢ |
| Germany | 96.70% | 96.70% | 0.00 | 94.6 / 98.8 | 93.0¢ |
| Austria | 96.55% | 96.50% | −0.05 | 95.6 / 97.4 | 82.7¢ |
| North Macedonia | 98.80% | 96.05% | −2.75 | 94.0 / 98.1 | 92.9¢ |
| Netherlands | 95.10% | 94.85% | −0.25 | 94.1 / 95.6 | 94.1¢ |
| Moldova | 90.50% | 94.55% | +4.05 | 90.2 / 98.9 | 99.0¢ |
| Israel | 95.20% | 88.45% | −6.75 | 84.8 / 92.1 | 84.4¢ |
| Belgium | 73.00% | 87.50% | +14.50 | 85.0 / 90.0 | 90.0¢ |
| Slovenia | 29.00% | 20.50% | −8.50 | 19.0 / 22.0 | 19.0¢ |
| Spain | 17.55% | 17.30% | −0.25 | 15.9 / 18.7 | 9.5¢ |
| Kazakhstan | 12.90% | 13.90% | +1.00 | 1.3 / 26.5 | 9.0¢ |
| Iceland | 19.50% | 12.00% | −7.50 | 11.0 / 13.0 | 19.0¢ |
| Ireland | 4.40% | 3.85% | −0.55 | 2.7 / 5.0 | 3.6¢ |
Lifetime volume rose from $39,208 to $43,546 — about $4,300 in six days, the busiest week this board has had since we started tracking it. These contracts settle on the countries named in the EBU’s first official list of participants, expected around the end of the year; later withdrawals do not change the result.
Israel: a drop without a reason
Israel’s contract fell 6.75 points to 88.45%, with about $1,030 of new trading and a last trade at 84.4¢. That is real money and a real change in the book: the best bid is now 84.8¢, where a week ago it was 93.9¢.
We looked for the cause and did not find one. KAN confirmed Israel’s participation in July, with its entry again to be chosen through HaKokhav HaBa. The EBU’s membership backed Israel’s inclusion earlier this year, and Eurovision director Martin Green has said the matter is settled and ruled out another vote on it. We have found nothing published between 16 and 22 October that changes any of that.
So there are two ways to read it. One is that somebody knows, or believes, something the public reporting does not yet show. The other is that a buyer of “No” — someone betting Israel is not on the first list — simply pushed into a book that had been resting at 95¢ for weeks, and the price moved because the book is thinner than the headline suggests. On about $1,000 we lean towards the second, but we would not dismiss the first: this is the single most politically sensitive contract on the board, and the one where an unexpected move most deserves watching.
For context, the whole 2026 boycott, and every boycott contract on this board, is built on the premise that the EBU does not remove Israel. If that premise were weakening, you would expect the boycotters’ contracts — Spain, Ireland, Iceland, Slovenia — to rise. This week they all fell.
Belgium: the deadline passed
Belgium had the most money of the week, about $1,590, and the biggest rise, from 73% to 87.5%, with the last trade at 90¢. Here there is a clear reason.
VRT told the EBU on 23 September that Belgium will compete in Burgas, after being given an extension to decide, and framed the decision as giving the EBU a chance to deliver reforms it had promised on participation, voting, juries and sponsorship. The risk the market had been pricing was that VRT would reverse that decision. The EBU’s window for broadcasters to withdraw without a financial penalty closed in the middle of October — and VRT did not withdraw. That is exactly the kind of non-event that should push a contract up, and it did.
The remaining risk is internal: two VRT unions have filed strike notices covering 11, 13 and 15 May 2027, the dates of the contest. A strike is not a withdrawal, and it would not affect whether Belgium is on the first list, which is what this contract settles on. We covered why Belgium had been stuck around 70%; the deadline passing is what moved it.
Moldova: priced at last
On 16 October Moldova’s contract had never traded, sitting at 90.5% a day after TRM confirmed participation. We wrote that a broadcaster which has confirmed publicly in October is very likely to be on the first list, and that we would put Moldova in the high 90s.
This week it traded for the first time: about $67 of volume, with the last trade at 99¢. The displayed midpoint is 94.55%, because the offer side is still thin, but the only trades that have ever happened on Moldova happened at 99. We are counting that one.
Spain, Slovenia and Iceland
Spain barely moved on the midpoint, 17.55% to 17.3%, but about $690 traded and the last trade fell to 9.5¢ — somebody sold Spain well below where the quotes sit. That fits our view last week that Spain’s jump after the Benidorm Fest line-up over-read a festival that ran without a Eurovision ticket in 2026. RTVE’s board vote on the chair’s proposal to stay out has still not been reported; when it is, it will be the biggest single event left on this board.
Slovenia fell from 29% to 20.5% on about $530 of trading, with the last trade at 19¢. Iceland fell from 19.5% to 12% on about $180. Neither broadcaster has published a decision this week. Taken together with Spain, the boycott group drifted down across the board — the market leaning a little further towards the 2026 boycotters staying away in 2027.
What the board cannot see
Serbia confirmed on 20 October that RTS will compete in Burgas, taking the provisional field to 33 countries. There had been speculation it might not, because RTS had not opened its usual national selection in September, and it is not yet clear whether Pesma za Evroviziju will return or RTS will choose internally for the first time since 2017. Serbia finished 17th in Vienna with Lavina’s “Kraj mene”. There is no Serbia contract, so like Albania, Czechia and Hungary before it, the news is invisible to the board.
Kazakhstan is the reverse problem: a contract that may not describe a real possibility. In September Politico reported, and 1news.az relayed, that the EBU had declined Khabar full membership — which competing requires — because Kazakhstan sits outside the European Broadcasting Area. Khabar later said it had made no application for 2027. Either way, Kazakhstan does not look like a 2027 participant. Its contract shows 13.9%, but that is the midpoint of a 1.3¢ bid and a 26.5¢ offer; the last trade was 9¢. We would treat the displayed price as meaningless.
| Country | Status | On the board? |
|---|---|---|
| Serbia | Confirmed 20 October | No contract |
| Albania | Confirmed 12 October | No contract |
| Moldova | Confirmed 15 October | 94.55% (last 99¢) |
| Czechia | Withdrew 6 October | No contract |
| Hungary | Undecided; EBU deadline 7 December | No contract |
| Kazakhstan | EBU reportedly refused full membership | 13.90% on a 1.3/26.5 book |
Where the money went
The week’s roughly $4,300 was concentrated in four contracts. Belgium took about $1,590, Israel $1,030, Spain $690 and Slovenia $530 — together almost 90% of everything traded. Canada, Italy and Germany did not trade at all; they are settled. The money is going where the open questions are, which is what a healthy market does. It is just not very much money: the whole board’s lifetime volume is still under $44,000.
How we read it
Belgium’s rise is the soundest move of the week: real money, and a real event in the deadline passing. At 87.5% it still prices some risk of a reversal, which looks about right for a broadcaster whose own unions oppose the decision.
Moldova at 99 is where it should be. The midpoint will catch up as the offer side fills in.
Israel is the one to watch. On the public facts, 88% looks low for a broadcaster that confirmed in July, under an EBU that has ruled out another vote. But the move had money behind it, and it is the contract where we would least like to be confidently wrong. If you see a report that explains it, that is the story.
The boycotters drifting lower is consistent with everything published. Spain’s board vote remains the one event that could reverse it. Our Eurovision 2027 preview tracks confirmations and withdrawals as they come, and the bookmaker guide covers where the contest itself will be priced once there are songs.
Sources
- Prices, bids, offers, last trades and volumes read from Polymarket’s Eurovision 2027 Participants event via its public API at 01:22 UTC on 16 October and 03:03 UTC on 22 October 2026.
- Serbia: Eurovoix, citing ESC Kompakt, 20 October 2026. Israel: ESCToday and Eurovoix, July 2026. Belgium: ESCXTRA, Eurovoix and ESCToday, September–October 2026.
- Kazakhstan: Politico as reported by 1news.az, September 2026, and Khabar’s subsequent statement.
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