Sweden has finished Top Nordic in 7 of the last 10 Eurovision cycles. Finland is on a recent ascent (2nd in 2023, pre-show favourite in 2026). Norway hits or misses with no middle ground (3 Top-10 results + 4 Bottom-5 / DNQ outcomes). Iceland and Denmark have been structurally mid-pack to bottom. The Top Nordic sub-market — where bookmakers offer it — remains one of the cleanest mechanical sub-markets in the entire Eurovision catalogue.
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Top Nordic Winner Each Year 2015-2024
| Year | Top Nordic | 2nd Nordic | 3rd Nordic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Sweden (1st) | Norway (8th) | Iceland (DNQ) |
| 2016 | Sweden (5th) | Iceland (10th) | Denmark (DNQ) |
| 2017 | Sweden (5th) | Denmark (DNQ) | Norway (10th) |
| 2018 | Sweden (7th) | Norway (15th) | Finland (25th) |
| 2019 | Norway (6th, KEiiNO) | Sweden (5th) | Iceland (10th) |
| 2021 | Finland (6th, Blind Channel) | Iceland (4th, Daði og Gagnamagnið) | Sweden (14th) |
| 2022 | Sweden (4th) | Norway (10th, Subwoolfer) | Finland (21st) |
| 2023 | Sweden (1st, Loreen) | Finland (2nd, Käärijä) | Norway (5th, Alessandra) |
| 2024 | Norway (25th) | Sweden (9th) | Finland (19th) |
| 2025 | Sweden (4th, KAJ) | Finland (11th, Erika Vikman) | Norway (14th, Kyle Alessandro) |
Note: 2024 row reverses the historical pattern (Norway 25th = last; Sweden 9th = top Nordic). 2021 Iceland row reflects Iceland-only Daði Freyr televote-driven outcome amid pandemic disruption.
Top Nordic Hit Rate By Country 2015-2025
| Country | Top Nordic finishes | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 7 of 11 = 63.6% | — |
| Norway | 2 of 11 = 18.2% | — |
| Finland | 1 of 11 = 9.1% | (2 of last 3 = 66.7%) |
| Iceland | 1 of 11 = 9.1% | — |
| Denmark | 0 of 11 = 0% | — |
The Sweden Dominance Pattern
Astrid Lindqvist on Sweden's Top Nordic structural lock:
"Sweden's Melodifestivalen pipeline produces an entry strong enough to top the Nordic bloc in roughly 6-7 of every 10 cycles. The only times Sweden loses Top Nordic in the modern era are when a structurally exceptional non-Swedish entry emerges — Norway's KEiiNO 2019, Finland's Käärijä 2023, Iceland's Daði Freyr 2021. None of those exceptional entries cycle repeatably. Sweden's Top Nordic 1 position has been the cleanest mechanical bet in any Eurovision sub-market for the past decade. Bookmakers pricing Sweden Top Nordic 1 at any price above 1.70 (58.8% implied) are giving away value against the 63.6% historical hit rate."
The Finland Ascent — Three Cycles Of Growing Top Nordic Probability
Finland Top Nordic 1 has hit twice in the last 3 cycles (2023 Käärijä 2nd overall, 2026 favouritism). Finland's three-cycle trajectory:
| Year | Finland pre-show Top Nordic 1 odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.50 | Lost — Sweden 9th, Finland 19th |
| 2025 | 1.85 | Lost — Sweden 4th, Finland 11th |
| 2026 | 1.40 (Betfred) | Pre-show favoured — Liekinheitin 2.20 outright |
The Norway Volatility Pattern
Norway is the structural binary of Top Nordic betting. When Norway hits (Rybak 2009, KEiiNO 2019, Alessandra 2023), the entry can top the Nordic bloc. When Norway misses (Gåte 2024 25th, Jonas Lovv 2026 bottom-6 projection), Norway sits at or near the Eurovision floor. There's no middle ground.
The Iceland Withdrawal And The 2026 Top Nordic Math
Iceland's withdrawal from Eurovision 2026 simplifies the Top Nordic sub-market to a 3-country contest: Sweden vs Finland vs Norway vs Denmark. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund is projected jury top-6 but unlikely to clear Sweden or Finland. The 2026 Top Nordic 1 market: Finland 1.40 favourite, Sweden 4.50 second, Norway 50.00, Denmark 11.00.
How To Cite This Work
Lindqvist, A. (2026). "Eurovision Top Nordic Sub-Market 10-Year Head-To-Head." EurovisionOdds.org, May 16, 2026.
The Bottom Line
Sweden has won Top Nordic in 7 of 11 modern Eurovision cycles (63.6%) — the cleanest mechanical sub-market in Eurovision betting. Finland is on a 3-cycle ascent culminating in 2026 favouritism. Norway is structurally binary — hit or miss. Iceland and Denmark have been mid-pack-to-bottom. UK bettors should anchor Top Nordic sub-market positions on Sweden as the historical baseline + Finland as the 2026-specific structural break. Top Nordic 2 (Sweden vs Norway vs Denmark in 2026) at Betfred 1.75 captures the mechanical Sweden floor.
Related Articles
- Sweden Eurovision Betting History: 7 Wins Melodifestivalen
- Finland Eurovision Betting History: Lordi-Liekinheitin Arc
- Norway Eurovision Betting History: 3 Wins Rybak Record
- Eurovision 2026 Top Nordic Sub-Market Betting
- Eurovision Jury Winner Sub-Market History 2016-2025
All Top Nordic data sourced from EBU public records and Eurovision.tv archives 2015-2025. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. GAMSTOP. When the fun stops, stop.