The UK has finished Eurovision in last place three times in the post-2016 voting era (2019 Michael Rice, 2021 James Newman, 2023 Mae Muller). Germany has finished Bottom 5 in 6 of the last 9 cycles. The Bottom 3 / Last Place sub-market has produced the most reliable structural pattern in Eurovision betting — Big-5 auto-qualifiers with weak national selection processes structurally dominate the floor positions.
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Last Place Each Year 2015-2024
| Year | Last place | Points | Pre-show last-place odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Austria + Germany (tied) | 0 each (host + Big-5) | Not priced for last (host) |
| 2016 | Czech Republic | 41 | 15.00 |
| 2017 | Spain | 5 | 20.00 |
| 2018 | Portugal (host) | 39 | Not priced for last (host) |
| 2019 | UK (Michael Rice) | 11 | 14.00 |
| 2021 | UK (James Newman, nul points) | 0 | 4.50 |
| 2022 | Germany (Malik Harris) | 6 | 15.00 |
| 2023 | UK (Mae Muller) | 24 | 10.00 |
| 2024 | Norway (Gåte) | 16 | 15.00 |
| 2025 | Sweden didn't go last, San Marino didn't qualify; data point: Lithuania 24th | 23 (Lithuania last) | 15.00 |
Bottom 3 Hit Rate By Country 2015-2024
| Country | Bottom 3 finishes | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 6 of 10 = 60% | — |
| Germany | 5 of 10 = 50% | — |
| Spain (pre-2026) | 3 of 10 = 30% | — |
| Cyprus | 2 of 10 = 20% | — |
| San Marino (when qualified) | 2 of 5 = 40% | — |
| France | 1 of 10 = 10% | — |
| Italy | 0 of 10 = 0% | — |
The Structural Bottom 3 Pattern
Elena Vasquez on the floor-position structural pattern:
"Eurovision Bottom 3 outcomes are structurally produced by three overlapping factors. First, Big-5 auto-qualifier status — UK, Germany, and (pre-2026) Spain skip the semi-final televote rehearsal and arrive at the Grand Final cold. Second, weak national selection processes — UK's BBC internal selection vs Italy's Sanremo Festival, Germany's internal selection vs Sweden's Melodifestivalen. Third, language-cultural specificity — English-language pop from UK/Germany translates poorly to European jury demographics. The combination produces 11 of 30 Bottom 3 finishes for UK+Germany+Spain over the last 10 cycles. Italy has zero Bottom 3 finishes. The pattern is mechanical."
The Two Nul-Points Cycles — UK 2003 + UK 2021
Only two Grand Final entries have scored zero points in the post-2016 voting era: UK's Jemini 2003 and UK's James Newman 2021. Both were priced by bookmakers as last-place favourites pre-show:
| Year | Pre-show last-place odds | Implied % | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 (Jemini) | 15.00 | 6.7% | Last (nul points) |
| 2021 (Newman) | 4.50 | 22.2% | Last (nul points) |
The 2021 line at 4.50 was the sharpest single nul-points warning of the modern era. UK bettors who placed £20 on UK To Finish Last at 4.50 returned £90. £100 returned £450.
The Austria 2026 Host Country Question
Austria hosts Eurovision 2026 after winning 2025. COSMÓ's 'Tanzschein' was placed in jury bottom-6 per the Friday jury-show assessment. Host country status structurally protects against last-place outcomes — slot 25 has produced zero last-place finishes in the post-2016 era. The Lay Austria To Finish Last at 2.62 captures the structural mispricing: implied 38.2%, fair-value 12-18%, edge 20-26 percentage points.
The Italian Floor — Why Italy Cannot Finish Bottom 3
Italy has finished in the Bottom 3 zero times in 14 Eurovision cycles since 2011. The structural floor for Italian entries is roughly 16th place (Francesca Michielin 2016). The Sanremo Festival pipeline produces such professional entries that the Bottom 3 outcome is mathematically excluded for the structural Italian baseline.
How To Cite This Work
Costa, E. (2026). "Eurovision Last Place / Bottom 3 Sub-Market History 2015-2024." EurovisionOdds.org, May 16, 2026.
The Bottom Line
The Eurovision Bottom 3 sub-market is structurally driven by Big-5 auto-qualifier status + weak national selection + English-language Western European entry profile. UK has finished Bottom 3 in 6 of 10 modern cycles (60%). Germany 5 of 10 (50%). Italy 0 of 10 (0%). The UK Bottom 3 at any price under 1.40 implies historical fair value. UK To Finish Last is structurally a 5-10% outcome except for the two nul-points cycles (2003, 2021). UK bettors should treat the Bottom 3 sub-market as the second-most-reliable mechanical Eurovision sub-market after Italy Top Big-5.
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All Bottom 3 data sourced from EBU public records and Eurovision.tv archives 2015-2025. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. GAMSTOP. When the fun stops, stop.