After five days of rehearsals at Wiener Stadthalle, the Eurovision 2026 betting market has told us everything it's going to tell us before the live shows begin. Semi-final countries have been on stage. The Big Five are rehearsing today. And the winner market has shifted โ in some cases dramatically โ from where it stood a week ago.
This is the definitive post-rehearsal ranking: the top 10 most likely winners of Eurovision 2026, based on current bookmaker odds, rehearsal evidence, jury and televote projections, and running order analysis. For each country, we give you the case for, the case against, and the betting play.
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The Current Top 10 (Post-Rehearsal Odds)
| Rank | Country | Artist โ Song | Best Odds | Win Prob. | Pre-Rehearsal | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | Lampenius & Parkkonen โ Liekinheitin | 2.50 | 30% | 2.50 | Steady |
| 2 | ๐ฌ๐ท Greece | Akylas โ Ferto | 4.00 | 16% | 4.50 | โฌ Shortened |
| 3 | ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | S. Torpegaard โ Fรธr vi gรฅr hjem | 7.00 | 11% | 8.00 | โฌ Shortened |
| 4 | ๐ฆ๐บ Australia | Delta Goodrem โ Eclipse | 8.00 | 9% | 9.00 | โฌ Shortened |
| 5 | ๐ซ๐ท France | Monroe โ Regarde ! | 9.00 | 7% | 10.00 | โฌ Shortened |
| 6 | ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | Noam Bettan โ Michelle | 17.00 | 4% | 21.00 | โฌ Shortened |
| 7 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | Felicia โ My System | 26.00 | 3% | 26.00 | Steady |
| 8 | ๐ท๐ด Romania | A. Cฤpitฤnescu โ Choke Me | 29.00 | 3% | 34.00 | โฌโฌ Surged |
| 9 | ๐ฎ๐น Italy | Sal Da Vinci โ Per sempre sรฌ | 29.00 | 2% | 29.00 | Steady |
| 10 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | AIDAN โ Bella | 17.00* | 2% | 67.00 | โฌโฌโฌ Crashed |
*Malta's 17/1 is the Smarkets exchange price. Traditional bookmakers still have Malta at 26/1-67/1 โ this gap is where the value sits. All other odds from Eurovisionworld.com, verified May 7.
1. ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland โ Liekinheitin (2.50, 30%)
The case for: Leads every metric โ jury odds, televote odds, fan polls, bookmaker odds. Rehearsal confirmed strong staging. Violin-meets-rock formula has a proven Eurovision pedigree (Rybak 2009). UMK victory was dominant (570 points). Read our full Finland analysis โ
The case against: 2.50 implies 40% โ the true probability is likely 33-38%. Slim positive EV but not generous. Performance-night risk always exists. Greece's televote strength could create a split-vote scenario.
Betting play: Finland to win at 2.50 is a solid bet for anyone who backs favourites. Finland Top 5 is the safer accumulator leg. SF1 winner market may offer better value at 1.50-1.80.
2. ๐ฌ๐ท Greece โ Ferto (4.00, 16%)
The case for: The most credible threat to Finland. Akylas' "Ferto" has massive televote potential backed by Greece's enormous diaspora across Europe. Rehearsal was polished and stage-ready. Running order 4 in SF1 is early but the quality overrides. Greece has unfinished business โ they've finished 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in recent years without a win since 2005.
The case against: 4/1 implies 25% โ this is probably slightly short given Finland's dominance. Greece's jury odds trail Finland's, meaning Greece needs to dominate the televote to compensate. The diaspora vote is powerful but may not be enough to overcome Finland's combined strength.
Betting play: Greece each-way at 4/1 is strong value. Even if Greece doesn't win, a top-3 finish is highly likely. At 1/5 each-way terms, you need Greece top 4 for a return โ and the odds suggest that's a 60%+ probability.
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3. ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark โ Fรธr vi gรฅr hjem (7.00, 11%)
The case for: The underdog narrative. A Danish-language ballad that shouldn't work at Eurovision but does. Sรธren Torpegaard's rehearsal confirmed the box staging โ shipped intact from MGP โ translates to the bigger stage. Denmark shortened from 8/1 to 7/1 after rehearsals, suggesting the market is warming. SF2 position 10 is excellent.
The case against: Danish-language entries have limited televote reach beyond Scandinavia. The jury might score it well but not 1st. Denmark's best-case scenario is a Mรฅns Zelmerlรถw-style jury/televote double โ but that requires the song to transcend language barriers on the night.
Betting play: Denmark each-way at 7/1 is excellent value. The rehearsal evidence supports a top-5 finish. At 7/1 each-way, you need Denmark top 4 for a return โ and the odds-implied probability of a top-5 finish is around 45%.
4. ๐ฆ๐บ Australia โ Eclipse (8.00, 9%)
The case for: Delta Goodrem is the biggest international name at Eurovision 2026. The 7,000-crystal performance was the visual highlight of Day 4. Australia has consistently performed well at Eurovision (top 10 in 5 of 7 appearances) and Delta brings star power that translates to televote curiosity.
The case against: Australia is geographically and culturally distant from the European televote base. The jury loves Delta but the televote may not mobilise. At 8/1, Australia needs everything to go right โ strong jury AND strong televote โ to threaten the top 3.
Betting play: Australia each-way at 8/1 is fair value. The crystals and star power make a top-5 finish realistic. The outright at 8/1 is speculative but not unreasonable.
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5. ๐ซ๐ท France โ Regarde ! (9.00, 7%)
The case for: The Big Five frontrunner. Monroe sits 2nd in jury odds โ ahead of Greece and Denmark. At 17, she's the youngest finalist, which adds narrative interest. France doesn't need to qualify through a semi-final, meaning today's first rehearsal is the key catalyst. A strong rehearsal could push France to 6/1-7/1.
The case against: Monroe is 17 on the biggest stage of her life. The Stadthalle holds 16,000. Some young performers rise; others crumble. France's price is entirely dependent on today's rehearsal โ if it's shaky, 9/1 will drift to 13/1-15/1.
Betting play: France each-way at 9/1 before today's rehearsal is the highest-upside bet in the top 10. If Monroe delivers, this price shortens immediately. If not, you're protected by the each-way terms (top 4 for a return).
6. ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel โ Michelle (17.00, 4%)
The case for: The giant mirrored diamond staging is the most visually stunning at the contest. Noam Bettan's vocals inside the crystal chamber create a TV moment unlike anything else. Israel shortened from 21/1 to 17/1 after rehearsals โ the market was impressed. The boycott controversy generates press coverage that, paradoxically, increases casual viewer awareness.
The case against: Four countries boycotting. Political controversy could suppress some televote support in progressive Western European countries. The staging is spectacular but "Michelle" needs to score highly with both jury and televote to crack the top 5 โ and the boycott factor creates asymmetric risk.
Betting play: Israel at 17/1 is a staging-dependent speculative bet. If the diamond works on television as well as it did in the arena, Israel is a legitimate top-5 contender. The televote-specific market may offer better value given the visual spectacle.
7. ๐ธ๐ช Sweden โ My System (26.00, 3%)
The case for: The fallen favourite. Felicia's "My System" won Melodifestivalen and was trading as low as 5/1 pre-season. The drift to 26/1 is entirely because other countries (Finland, Greece, Denmark) became bigger stories โ not because Sweden had a bad rehearsal. SVT's production team is the most experienced in Eurovision. Sweden has finished top 5 in 4 of the last 6 finals.
The case against: The drift from 5/1 to 26/1 is telling โ the market has reassessed Sweden's ceiling. "My System" may be a very good entry in a great year, rather than a great entry. The jury might not rate it as highly as Melodifestivalen entries of recent years.
Betting play: Sweden Top 5 finish at 3/1-4/1 is the clear value play. The outright at 26/1 is speculative but defensible as a small each-way stake given Sweden's track record.
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8. ๐ท๐ด Romania โ Choke Me (29.00, 3%)
The case for: The biggest rehearsal mover among genuine contenders. Romania went from 34/1 to 29/1 after a first rehearsal described as "broadcast-ready" โ neon tubes, leather corset styling, six performers, and camera confidence that impressed the entire press centre. Wiwibloggs described the staging as "one of the best in ESC history."
The case against: Romania hasn't finished in the top 5 since 2010. The staging is impressive but "Choke Me" needs the televote to respond to the dark, edgy aesthetic โ and casual viewers may find it too aggressive. The jury should score it well but probably not 1st.
Betting play: Romania each-way at 29/1 (Betfred) is a strong dark horse bet. At 1/5 each-way terms, you need Romania top 4 for a return. Top 10 is the realistic target โ but the staging could push them further.
9. ๐ฎ๐น Italy โ Per sempre sรฌ (29.00, 2%)
The case for: Sanremo 2026 winner. Most streamed Big Five entry. The Sanremo-to-Eurovision pipeline has produced winners (Mรฅneskin 2021) and near-misses (Mahmood 2019, Angelina Mango 2024). Sal Da Vinci's first rehearsal is today โ if the staging translates, this price could halve.
The case against: Italy at 29/1 has been static โ the market isn't moving despite the Sanremo prestige. A Neapolitan ballad may struggle to connect with the broad European televote. The jury will either love the artistry or find it too niche.
Betting play: Italy at 29/1 is staging-dependent. Wait for today's rehearsal (13:30 CEST), then act fast if the press centre reacts positively. If you want pre-rehearsal exposure, a small each-way stake at 29/1 offers huge upside.
10. ๐ฒ๐น Malta โ Bella (17/1 exchange, 26/1+ traditional)
The case for: The biggest odds movement of Eurovision 2026. From 67/1 to 17/1 on Smarkets after a single rehearsal. The architectural prop, the rose petal tornado, the archival Versace, the zoetrope overhead shots โ AIDAN's staging is extraordinary. Position 14 in SF2 is outstanding for televote recall. The gap between exchange (17/1) and traditional bookmakers (26/1-67/1) is an arbitrage opportunity.
The case against: Malta has never won Eurovision. The staging is spectacular but the song needs to match โ and "Bella" may not have the melodic depth to challenge established entries. The exchange price reflects informed bettors, but 17/1 still implies only 6% โ this is a genuine longshot.
Betting play: Malta at 29/1+ at traditional bookmakers (Betfred) while the exchange price is 17/1 is the clearest value play in the entire contest. When traditional books adjust to match the exchange, the window closes. Act now.
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Our Grand Final Betting Card
Here's our recommended betting card for Eurovision 2026, ranked by confidence:
๐ข HIGH CONFIDENCE
โข Finland to win at 2.50 โ Dominant favourite, slim positive EV
โข Greece each-way at 4/1 โ Most credible threat, top-4 finish likely
โข Denmark each-way at 7/1 โ Rehearsal confirmed, excellent value
๐ก MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
โข France each-way at 9/1 โ Pre-rehearsal value, staging-dependent
โข Malta at 29/1+ (traditional books) โ Exchange gap says it all
โข Romania each-way at 29/1 โ "Broadcast-ready" staging, dark horse upside
๐ SPECULATIVE
โข Sweden Top 5 at 3/1-4/1 โ Pedigree play, proven track record
โข Israel televote market โ Diamond staging for TV viewers
โข Italy each-way at 29/1 โ Wait for today's rehearsal, then act
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All odds from Eurovisionworld.com, verified May 7 2026. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Eurovision 2026?
Finland is the clear favourite at 2.50 (6/4), with a 30% implied win probability. Greece (4/1), Denmark (7/1), Australia (8/1), and France (9/1) round out the top 5. After rehearsals, Romania and Malta have surged into the top 10 with stunning staging performances.
What are the latest Eurovision 2026 odds after rehearsals?
The top 5 after rehearsals: Finland 2.50, Greece 4.00, Denmark 7.00, Australia 8.00, France 9.00. The biggest movers were Malta (67/1 to 17/1 on exchanges), Romania (34/1 to 29/1), Israel (21/1 to 17/1), and Greece (4.50 to 4.00). Sweden drifted from a pre-season 5/1 to 26/1.
When is the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
The Grand Final takes place on Saturday May 17, 2026 at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria. Semi-Final 1 is Monday May 12 and Semi-Final 2 is Wednesday May 14. All shows begin at 21:00 CEST.
Which Eurovision 2026 country had the biggest odds movement after rehearsals?
Malta had the biggest single movement โ from 67/1 to 17/1 on the Smarkets exchange after AIDAN's staging reveal on Day 4. The architectural prop, archival Versace outfit, and rose petal tornado created the most dramatic odds crash of the rehearsal period.
Where is the best place to bet on Eurovision 2026?
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