Monday May 12 is the first live show of Eurovision 2026, and it's loaded. Fifteen countries compete for ten qualification spots in Semi-Final 1 at Wiener Stadthalle โ and after a week of rehearsals, the picture is both clearer and more chaotic than anyone expected.
The top four are virtual certainties. The middle tier is solid but not bulletproof. And then there's the bubble โ a cluster of five countries between 37% and 61% qualification probability, separated by fractions of a percentage point, where one strong second rehearsal or one shaky vocal could flip the entire order.
Here's every Semi-Final 1 country ranked by their post-rehearsal qualification odds, with our assessment of what each entry needs to do to make it through.
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The Running Order
Running order matters. Research consistently shows that songs performing in the second half of a semi-final have a significant qualification advantage โ viewers remember what they heard most recently when voting. Here's the SF1 running order with qualification odds:
| # | Country | Artist | Song | Qual. Odds | Half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | Satoshi | Viva, Moldova! | 88% | 1st |
| 2 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | Felicia | My System | 95% | 1st |
| 3 | ๐ญ๐ท Croatia | LELEK | Andromeda | 83% | 1st |
| 4 | ๐ฌ๐ท Greece | Akylas | Ferto | 95% | 1st |
| 5 | ๐ต๐น Portugal | Bandidos do Cante | Rosa | 45% | 1st |
| 6 | ๐ฌ๐ช Georgia | Bzikebi | On Replay | 45% | 1st |
| โ | ๐ฎ๐น Italy | Sal Da Vinci | Per sempre sรฌ | โ (Big Five) | โ |
| 7 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | Lampenius & Parkkonen | Liekinheitin | 96% | 2nd |
| 8 | ๐ฒ๐ช Montenegro | Tamara ลฝivkoviฤ | Nova zora | 61% | 2nd |
| 9 | ๐ช๐ช Estonia | Vanilla Ninja | Too Epic To Be True | 47% | 2nd |
| 10 | ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | Noam Bettan | Michelle | 95% | 2nd |
| โ | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | Sarah Engels | Fire | โ (Big Five) | โ |
| 11 | ๐ง๐ช Belgium | ESSYLA | Dancing on the Ice | 37% | 2nd |
| 12 | ๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | Lion Ceccah | Sรณlo quiero mรกs | 71% | 2nd |
| 13 | ๐ธ๐ฒ San Marino | SENHIT | Superstar | 20% | 2nd |
| 14 | ๐ต๐ฑ Poland | ALICJA | Pray | 47% | 2nd |
| 15 | ๐ท๐ธ Serbia | LAVINA | Kraj mene | 77% | 2nd |
Italy and Germany perform as Big Five guests but do not compete for qualification. Odds from Eurovisionworld.com, verified May 7.
Tier 1: The Locks (95-96%)
๐ซ๐ฎ Finland โ Liekinheitin (96%, Running Order 7)
The overall contest favourite at 30% win probability is the safest qualifier in SF1. Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen delivered a commanding first rehearsal that confirmed everything the betting market expected. The staging translates. The vocals are there. Finland will qualify and likely top the semi-final.
Risk factor: Essentially zero. Finland would need a catastrophic technical failure to miss out. The 96% is conservative โ this is a 99%+ lock in practice.
๐ฌ๐ท Greece โ Ferto (95%, Running Order 4)
The 2nd overall favourite at 16% win probability. Akylas' first rehearsal confirmed a polished, stage-ready performance. Running in position 4 is slightly early โ Greece would have preferred the second half โ but the quality of the entry overrides any running order disadvantage.
Risk factor: Negligible. Greece's only concern is peaking too early in the evening, but at this quality level, the jury alone would qualify them.
๐ธ๐ช Sweden โ My System (95%, Running Order 2)
Felicia delivered a clean, professional first rehearsal โ exactly what you'd expect from the most experienced national broadcaster in Eurovision. Position 2 is the worst possible draw for televote recall, but Sweden's Melodifestivalen pedigree and SVT's production team mean the staging will be optimised by the second rehearsal. The jury will do the heavy lifting here.
Risk factor: Running order position 2 is genuinely concerning for televote purposes. But Sweden has qualified from semi-finals 18 times out of 19 attempts. The one miss was 2010. This isn't 2010.
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel โ Michelle (95%, Running Order 10)
Noam Bettan's giant mirrored diamond โ the largest stage prop in Vienna โ dominated the Day 2 rehearsal conversation. Inside the diamond, reflective surfaces create the illusion of a crystal chamber. Outside, five dancers in dual-tone leather flank Noam in choreographed formations. The staging is designed for television cameras and it works.
Position 10 (closing the second half before Belgium) is excellent for voter recall. Despite the boycott controversy and four countries withdrawing, the qualification odds are clear: Israel will be in the Grand Final.
Risk factor: Political boycott could suppress some televote support, but the jury will score the staging and vocals highly. Not a realistic NQ.
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Tier 2: Very Likely (77-88%)
๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova โ Viva, Moldova! (88%, Running Order 1)
Opening the entire semi-final is the toughest draw possible โ and Moldova got it. The good news: Satoshi's energetic staging and the infectious "Viva, Moldova!" hook are designed to wake up the arena. The EBU's rehearsal coverage showed a confident, high-energy performance that sets the tone for the evening.
At 88%, Moldova is expected to qualify comfortably. But position 1 carries a historical penalty โ voters often forget the opening act by the time voting opens. Moldova needs the juries to remember.
Risk factor: Opening position is a genuine 5-10% penalty. If Moldova's jury scores are mid-table, the televote might not save them from position 1. Still a comfortable qualifier, but not the lock that the quality of the entry deserves.
๐ญ๐ท Croatia โ Andromeda (83%, Running Order 3)
LELEK's vocal harmonies were described as something that "changes you" by the EBU press team. The three women singing in unison create a sound unlike anything else in the semi-final. Position 3 is early, but a genuinely distinctive vocal performance has a better chance of sticking in memory than a standard pop entry would.
Risk factor: The early running order (position 3) paired with a slower, harmony-driven entry is a concern. If the juries love it (likely), Croatia is safe. If jury scores are lukewarm, the televote from position 3 might not be enough.
๐ท๐ธ Serbia โ Kraj mene (77%, Running Order 15)
LAVINA close the semi-final in position 15 โ the best possible draw for televote recall. The rehearsal was explosive: enormous black costumes with metal embellishments, oversized shoulder armour concealing two swords, a sword-in-rock mic stand, and pyro so intense the press centre felt the heat on their faces. The EBU described it as "a multi-sensory attack."
Closing the show with this level of theatrical metal energy is almost certainly enough to qualify. Serbia's risk is entirely on the jury side โ professional jurors may score the theatrical rock lower than the televote will.
Risk factor: Jury scores could be middling for the genre. But closing position + massive pyro + memorable staging = televote qualifier regardless.
๐ฑ๐น Lithuania โ Sรณlo quiero mรกs (71%, Running Order 12)
Lion Ceccah's rehearsal was one of the most talked-about of Day 2. Two outfits (a giant hooded cloak AND a gothically tailored suit), silver makeup, moments of high camp comedy, English subtitles for a self-aware interlude, and a black-and-white transition. The EBU called it a performance "of the golden era of cinema."
Position 12 is solid second-half territory. The theatricality will land with both juries (artistry, creativity) and televoters (sheer entertainment value).
Risk factor: At 71%, Lithuania is the most likely qualifier that isn't a certainty. The risk is that the camp factor divides opinion โ some juries will score it highly, others might find it gimmicky. But the staging is too good and the running order too favourable for a realistic NQ scenario.
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Tier 3: The Bubble โ Where the Bets Are Won (37-61%)
This is where the money is made. Five countries fighting for what are effectively two qualification spots (positions 9 and 10). The qualification odds are razor-thin, and one good second rehearsal can flip the entire tier.
๐ฒ๐ช Montenegro โ Nova zora (61%, Running Order 8)
The bubble favourite. Tamara ลฝivkoviฤ's three-act staging โ signalled by Roman numerals on the LED screen โ features a black corset bejewelled in black gems, a black ruff collar, four dancers mirroring her in contrasting white, and choreography described as ranging from "the maniacal to the impressively synced." Dark red hues, thunder, lightning, and molten lava complete the visual spectacle.
Position 8 in the running order (second half, directly after Finland) is excellent. Montenegro benefits from the energy shift after Finland's performance and delivers a completely different mood โ dark, dramatic, theatrical.
Qualification bet: Montenegro to qualify at 1.50 (Betsson/Betfred) is our best bubble bet. The staging is too good and the position too favourable for a 61% implied probability. This should be 70%+.
๐ช๐ช Estonia โ Too Epic To Be True (47%, Running Order 9)
Vanilla Ninja's return after 21 years is a genuine Eurovision story. The rock-trio delivered upgraded costumes, crowd interaction during the middle-eight, and a pure pyro finish that lit up the Stadthalle. The Eesti Laul-winning song has been given a "rocked-up revamp" for the international stage.
Position 9 (between Finland at 7 and Israel at 10) means Estonia is sandwiched between two of the strongest entries in the semi. That's a double-edged sword โ it guarantees a warmed-up audience but risks being overshadowed.
Qualification bet: Estonia to qualify at 2.00 (evens) is a coin flip in the odds โ and that feels about right. The Vanilla Ninja nostalgia factor plus the pyro finish could push them through. At evens, there's slim value if you believe the crowd energy will translate to televotes.
๐ต๐ฑ Poland โ Pray (47%, Running Order 14)
ALICJA has waited six years for this moment. Selected for the cancelled Eurovision 2020, she finally gets her stage โ and the rehearsal suggests the wait was worth it. A mysterious prop (which the EBU deliberately kept secret) transforms once ALICJA and her four dancers interact with it. The gospel-themed intro features "incredible camera shots" and the backing dancers' outfits were singled out as the best-dressed ensemble at the contest.
Position 14 (penultimate) is outstanding for televote recall. The emotional "coming back after 6 years" narrative adds a compelling backstory that press coverage will amplify.
Qualification bet: Poland to qualify at 2.00 is where we see the most value in the bubble. Position 14, a mysterious prop the EBU won't spoil, emotional narrative, and incredible camera work. The 47% implied probability underestimates what a penultimate running order position delivers in the televote.
๐ฌ๐ช Georgia โ On Replay (45%, Running Order 6)
Bzikebi's "On Replay" sits at 45% โ but the odds tell a confusing story. Betsson has Georgia at 1.60 (63%) while most other bookmakers price them at 2.20-2.40 (42-45%). When one major bookmaker disagrees this dramatically with the rest of the market, it often means they have information (or a model) that others don't.
Position 6 (closing the first half before the Italy guest performance and interval) is decent โ the last competing entry before the break often gets a boost as it's freshest in memory when viewers return.
Qualification bet: Georgia at 2.25 (Betsson's competitors) is interesting if you trust Betsson's shorter price. The bookmaker disagreement signals genuine uncertainty.
๐ต๐น Portugal โ Rosa (45%, Running Order 5)
Bandidos do Cante bring traditional Portuguese polyphonic singing to the Eurovision stage with "Rosa." At 45%, Portugal is priced identically to Georgia โ and they share a similar profile: distinctive sound, niche appeal, uncertain mass-audience crossover. Position 5 is mid-first-half, which is neither advantageous nor disastrous.
Qualification bet: Portugal at 2.00-2.30 is a pure taste bet. If you believe juries will reward the authenticity of the traditional vocal style, Portugal squeezes through. If the televote dominates (and the new voting rules give televote more power), Portugal's niche appeal becomes a liability.
๐ง๐ช Belgium โ Dancing on the Ice (37%, Running Order 11)
ESSYLA's ice-queen staging was one of the most visually ambitious of the rehearsal period. A wind machine opening, transparent ice cape, crystal floor, snow machine, fire-versus-ice battle, and laced-up leather armour with crystal spikes. The staging concept is fully realised and television-ready.
At 37%, Belgium is the most underpriced entry in the bubble. Position 11 (opening the post-interval second half) is a prime slot. The staging is spectacular. The issue? "Dancing on the Ice" as a song may lack the melodic hook needed to convert visual impact into actual votes.
Qualification bet: Belgium to qualify at 2.50-3.00 is a speculative play on staging over song. If the second rehearsal polishes the vocals and the snow machine creates a memorable TV moment, Belgium could steal a bubble spot. At 3/1, the upside is worth a small stake.
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Tier 4: Needs a Miracle (20%)
๐ธ๐ฒ San Marino โ Superstar (20%, Running Order 13)
SENHIT and Boy George. A mirrorball jumpsuit. Rainbow spotlights. Secret props. Camp turned up to maximum. The San Marino rehearsal was undeniably entertaining โ but "entertaining" and "qualifying" are different things at Eurovision.
At 20% (5/1 against), San Marino is the longest shot in SF1. The Boy George factor adds genuine star power โ he's the most recognisable face in the entire semi-final โ and the camp staging will generate social media buzz. But the song needs to stand on its own merits once the spectacle fades.
Qualification bet: San Marino to qualify at 4.50-5.00 is a fun bet, not a value bet. But if Boy George's presence drives casual viewers to vote, and the secret props land on TV, 5/1 isn't outrageous for a country with this level of entertainment value. A small each-way flutter if your bookmaker offers the market.
Our Predicted Qualifiers
| Predicted Qualifier | Qualification Confidence | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 1. ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | ๐ข Lock | Contest favourite, position 7 |
| 2. ๐ฌ๐ท Greece | ๐ข Lock | 2nd favourite, polished staging |
| 3. ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | ๐ข Lock | Diamond staging, position 10 |
| 4. ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | ๐ข Lock | Jury powerhouse, Melfest pedigree |
| 5. ๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | ๐ข Very Likely | Infectious energy despite opening |
| 6. ๐ญ๐ท Croatia | ๐ข Very Likely | "Changes you" vocal harmonies |
| 7. ๐ท๐ธ Serbia | ๐ก Likely | Pyro spectacle, closing position 15 |
| 8. ๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | ๐ก Likely | Theatrical, camp, position 12 |
| 9. ๐ฒ๐ช Montenegro | ๐ Bubble | 3-act drama, position 8 โ our pick |
| 10. ๐ต๐ฑ Poland | ๐ Bubble | Secret prop, emotional narrative, pos 14 |
Closest misses (our prediction): Estonia (11th โ Vanilla Ninja nostalgia not quite enough), Georgia (12th โ Betsson disagrees), Belgium (13th โ staging over song), Portugal (14th โ too niche for televote), San Marino (15th โ entertainment โ votes).
The margin between 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th could be fewer than 10 points. This is genuinely anyone's race from Montenegro through Portugal.
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Smart Betting Plays for Semi-Final 1
1. Montenegro to qualify at 1.50 โ BEST VALUE
The staging is too good, the position too strong. 61% implied probability is too low for what we saw in rehearsals. Back at 1.50.
2. Poland to qualify at 2.00 โ VALUE BET
Penultimate position, mysterious prop, six-year emotional narrative. The 47% implied probability underestimates the televote power of running 14th out of 15.
3. San Marino NOT to qualify โ SAFETY PLAY
If your bookmaker offers the "Not to Qualify" market, San Marino NQ at around 1.25 is a safe accumulator leg. Boy George adds spectacle but the song likely isn't strong enough.
4. Belgium to qualify at 2.75+ โ SPECULATIVE
The ice-queen staging is extraordinary and position 11 is prime real estate. At 2.75 or better, Belgium is worth a small stake if the second rehearsal shows improved vocals.
All odds from Eurovisionworld.com, verified May 7 2026.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many countries qualify from Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
10 countries out of 15 will qualify for the Grand Final on May 17. The results are determined by a combination of televoting from participating countries, online "Rest of the World" voting, and national jury scores. Germany and Italy also perform in SF1 as Big Five guests but don't compete for qualification.
Which countries are safe qualifiers in Semi-Final 1?
Four countries are virtual certainties: Finland (96%), Greece (95%), Sweden (95%), and Israel (95%). Moldova (88%) and Croatia (83%) are also very likely qualifiers. The real battle is for positions 9 and 10 among Montenegro, Estonia, Poland, Georgia, and Portugal.
When is Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
Semi-Final 1 takes place on Monday May 12, 2026 at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria. The show is hosted by Victoria Swarovski, Michael Ostrowski, and Emily Busvine (greenroom). Live broadcast begins at 21:00 CEST (20:00 BST, 15:00 ET).
What is the Semi-Final 1 running order for Eurovision 2026?
The running order is: 1. Moldova, 2. Sweden, 3. Croatia, 4. Greece, 5. Portugal, 6. Georgia, (Italy guest), 7. Finland, 8. Montenegro, 9. Estonia, 10. Israel, (Germany guest), 11. Belgium, 12. Lithuania, 13. San Marino, 14. Poland, 15. Serbia. Countries performing in the second half (positions 7-15) historically have a qualification advantage.
Where can I bet on Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 qualification?
Betfred offers qualification markets with Bet ยฃ10 Get ยฃ50 in Free Bets. Stake has crypto betting with instant payouts. Thunderpick offers a 100% first deposit bonus. Cloudbet offers up to 5 BTC welcome bonus.