Eurovision 2026's Semi-Final 1 takes place on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna. Fifteen countries will compete for 10 qualification spots in the Grand Final. With the running order now confirmed, the betting markets have sharpened significantly. Here is the complete breakdown of every slot, every country, and every odds-based prediction.
The Full Running Order
The running order was announced on April 2, 2026, determined by the contest producers to create a dynamic, engaging show. Countries drawn from the first half of the allocation draw pot take slots 1-7, and countries from the second half take slots 8-15.
| Slot | Country | Artist | Song |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moldova | ā | Opens the semi |
| 2 | Sweden | FELICIA | ā |
| 3 | Croatia | ā | ā |
| 4 | Greece | Akylas | Ferto |
| 5 | Finland | Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen | Liekinheitin |
| 6 | Georgia | ā | ā |
| 7 | Portugal | ā | ā |
| 8 | Belgium | ā | ā |
| 9 | Estonia | Vanilla Ninja | ā |
| 10 | Israel | ā | ā |
| 11 | Lithuania | ā | ā |
| 12 | Montenegro | ā | ā |
| 13 | Poland | ā | ā |
| 14 | San Marino | Senhit feat. Boy George | Superstar |
| 15 | Serbia | ā | Closes the semi |
Opening Slot: Moldova (Slot 1)
Drawing the opening slot of a Eurovision semi-final is historically one of the hardest positions from which to qualify. Voters have 14 more performances to watch, and memory plays a crucial role. Moldova will need a genuinely distinctive entry to stand out after the other acts have performed.
Moldova's odds at Betfred reflect this structural disadvantage, with qualification looking challenging from this position.
The Golden Stretch: Slots 2-5
Slots 2-5 represent the early-middle part of the semi-final, traditionally a strong position for building momentum. This section contains four of the strongest entries in SF1:
Slot 2: Sweden ā FELICIA
Sweden, the most successful Eurovision nation in recent history with three wins since 2012, sends FELICIA in 2026. Despite the controversy around FELICIA's comments on Israeli participation (which has been extensively covered in the Eurovision press), Sweden remains one of the favourites to qualify comfortably.
Slot 3: Croatia
Croatia had its breakthrough year in 2023 with Baby Lasagna finishing second, and has invested heavily in its national selection process since. Qualification is considered likely, with Croatia typically favoured in the betting markets.
Slot 4: Greece ā Akylas, 'Ferto'
Greece is the story of the Eurovision 2026 betting market. Akylas and 'Ferto' have surged from 15th place in the winner market to the top five, and qualification from Semi-Final 1 is considered a near certainty by the bookmakers.
Slot 5: Finland ā Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, 'Liekinheitin'
The Eurovision 2026 favourite performs in the middle of SF1. 'Liekinheitin' ā a violin-fuelled rock-classical-dance fusion ā is priced at odds of 6/4 to win the entire contest. Qualification from the semi is a formality on current form. Slot 5 is considered one of the stronger positions for memorable performances.
The Middle: Slots 6-10
Slot 6: Georgia
Georgia has been a Eurovision ever-present since its debut in 2007 but has found qualification difficult in recent years. The 2026 entry will need to impress to make it through from what is a competitive semi-final.
Slot 7: Portugal
Portugal won Eurovision in 2017 with Salvador Sobral's 'Amar pelos dois' and has maintained a strong reputation for artistic entries. Qualification from SF1 is considered possible, though not guaranteed.
Slot 8: Belgium
Belgium opens the second half of the show from slot 8 ā historically a strong position. The second-half running generally performs better with televoters because the songs are fresher in memory when voting opens.
Slot 9: Estonia ā Vanilla Ninja
One of the most talked-about comebacks of Eurovision 2026. Vanilla Ninja previously represented Switzerland in 2005, finishing 8th, and their return to Eurovision ā this time for Estonia ā is one of the feel-good stories of the season.
Slot 10: Israel
Israel's participation is the defining controversy of Eurovision 2026, with five countries having boycotted in protest. Israel has performed exceptionally well in recent televotes (5th in 2024, 2nd in 2025), though the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed running advertising campaigns to boost public votes.
The Back End: Slots 11-15
The final five slots include both structural advantages (later performances are fresher in voters' minds) and structural challenges (voter fatigue).
Slot 14: San Marino ā Senhit feat. Boy George, 'Superstar'
San Marino's biggest bet ever. Senhit returns with none other than Boy George as a featured artist on 'Superstar'. The combination of Eurovision experience (Senhit) and global pop royalty (Boy George) has transformed San Marino from perennial non-qualifier to genuine dark horse.
Slot 15: Serbia (closes)
Closing the semi-final is considered the strongest slot in the running order, sometimes called the 'pimp slot'. The final act is fresh in voters' minds when voting opens. Serbia will enjoy this structural advantage and is considered highly likely to qualify.
Qualifier Predictions: The 10 That Advance
Based on current betting markets at Betfred and staging-adjusted analysis, here are the 10 most likely qualifiers from Semi-Final 1:
| Prediction | Country | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | Very High |
| 2 | Sweden | Very High |
| 3 | Greece | Very High |
| 4 | Croatia | High |
| 5 | San Marino | High |
| 6 | Israel | High |
| 7 | Serbia | High |
| 8 | Estonia | Medium-High |
| 9 | Portugal | Medium |
| 10 | Belgium | Medium |
The bubble contenders just outside the qualification zone are Georgia, Moldova, Lithuania, Montenegro, and Poland. Any of these could break through with a spectacular live performance or viral social media moment during rehearsals.
Key Betting Markets for SF1
At Betfred and other major bookmakers, the following Semi-Final 1 markets are available:
- Semi-Final 1 Winner ā which country finishes first in the semi
- Qualification (Yes/No) ā for each competing country
- Top 10 Finish ā in the semi itself
- Non-Qualifier ā which 5 countries miss out
- Head-to-Head ā direct comparisons between entries
Voting Format
The Semi-Finals use the televote only system. Juries do not vote in the semi-finals ā only the public televote counts. This favours entries with strong fan bases, visual impact, and songs that hook on first listen. Juries return for the Grand Final.
What Happens After SF1
The 10 qualifying countries join the Big 5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) plus host nation Austria ā along with the 10 qualifiers from Semi-Final 2 on May 14 ā in the Grand Final on May 16, 2026.
Note: Spain is not participating in 2026 due to its boycott, so the Big 5 effectively functions as a Big 4 for this contest.
Place Your Bets
For the best odds on Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 qualification, non-qualification, and winner markets, visit Betfred. Odds will move significantly once rehearsals begin in late April, so bettors who want the best prices should act during the pre-rehearsal window.
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Related Articles
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- How to Vote at Eurovision 2026
- Why Finland Is the 2026 Favourite
- Jury vs Televote Guide
- SF Qualifier Predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Who performs first and last in Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
Moldova opens the semi-final in slot 1, and Serbia closes in slot 15. Finland performs in slot 5.
Do juries vote in Eurovision 2026 semi-finals?
No. Semi-Finals are decided by televote only ā no jury points. Juries return for the Grand Final.
When is Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 21:00 CEST from the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
Which Big 5 countries vote in SF1?
Germany and Italy vote in Semi-Final 1 as automatic qualifiers assigned to this semi.