The Eurovision 2026 betting market is shifting. With just over a month until the Grand Final in Vienna on May 16, Finland's once-commanding lead is narrowing and the chasing pack is closing in fast. Here is the full breakdown of where the odds stand as of April 9, 2026.
Finland Still Favourite — But the Gap Is Closing
Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen remain at the top of the betting with Liekinheitin, their violin-fuelled rock-classical-dance fusion that has captivated fans since its national selection victory. However, the implied probability has dropped from 44% to around 38%, suggesting a modest cooling in bettor confidence.
At Betfred, Finland is priced at 6/4, down from the 5/4 that had been available earlier in the season. This is still a clear lead over the rest of the field, but the direction of travel is notable. The song remains the bookmakers' pick to win, but the market is telling us that this is no longer a one-horse race.
Finland still accounts for 23% of all wagers placed on the Eurovision 2026 winner market, comfortably the highest share of any country. The combination of a genuinely innovative song, strong staging potential, and Finland's reputation for delivering at Eurovision continues to make it the default pick for many bettors.
Denmark Surges Into Second Place
The biggest mover of the past fortnight is Denmark. Søren Torpegaard Lund's 'Før vi går hjem' has been gaining momentum steadily since the Danish national selection, and the bookmakers have responded by shortening Denmark's odds significantly. Denmark now sits alongside France in joint second place in the betting.
This is a remarkable rise for a country that was sitting in the mid-table of the betting just a few weeks ago. The song's emotional depth and Torpegaard Lund's vocal delivery have been winning over fans and pundits alike, and the growing fan support has translated directly into betting market movement.
For bettors looking for value, Denmark's current price at Betfred may represent one of the last opportunities to back a genuine contender at relatively generous odds before rehearsals begin and the market tightens further.
France Holds Strong in Second
France's Monroe continues to hold a strong position with 'Regarde!', maintaining second place in the betting alongside Denmark. France has been a consistent presence in the top three since its national selection, and the song's combination of power and artistry continues to draw support.
France benefits from being an automatic qualifier for the Grand Final, meaning voters will see the performance on the biggest night without any semi-final risk. This structural advantage is reflected in the odds, and France remains one of the safest each-way bets in the market.
Greece Climbing Fast
Akylas and 'Ferto' have been one of the stories of the Eurovision 2026 betting season. Greece has climbed from 15th place all the way to the top five, with the song's popularity spreading rapidly through fan communities and social media. Greece currently sits around 5th in the betting with an implied win probability of approximately 8%.
In the last 24 hours alone, Greece has received the most bets of any country on Oddschecker, indicating that the momentum is still building. If this trend continues through the rehearsal period, Greece could push even higher before the Grand Final.
The last time Greece was this high in the Eurovision betting was 2009, when Sakis Rouvas finished 7th in Moscow. A top-five finish would be a significant result for Greece, and the current odds suggest the market believes it is very much in play.
Italy: The Dark Horse Attracting Serious Money
One of the most interesting stories in the betting data is Italy. Despite sitting around 10th place in the odds with an implied probability of just 2.6%, Italy's Sal Da Vinci and 'Per sempre si' have attracted a remarkable 17% of all bets placed on the winner market.
This disconnect between betting volume and odds position suggests one of two things: either Italian fans are backing their entry in large numbers regardless of the price, or there is a cohort of bettors who believe Italy is significantly undervalued by the bookmakers. Either way, if the money continues to flow, the odds will shorten.
Italy is another automatic Grand Final qualifier, which removes semi-final risk from the equation. For bettors willing to take a longer shot, Italy at current prices could represent genuine value if the staging and live performance land well in Vienna.
Romania Continues to Draw Interest
Despite the controversy surrounding 'Choke Me', Romania continues to attract significant betting interest, accounting for 13% of all wagers. The song's provocative title and staging have generated enormous media coverage, and as the old Eurovision wisdom goes, there is no such thing as bad publicity when it comes to the televote.
Current Top 10 Odds (April 9, 2026)
Here is a snapshot of the current betting market:
| Position | Country | Artist | Song | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen | Liekinheitin | ~38% |
| 2 | France | Monroe | Regarde! | ~12% |
| 3 | Denmark | Søren Torpegaard Lund | Før vi går hjem | ~11% |
| 4 | Sweden | FELICIA | — | ~9% |
| 5 | Greece | Akylas | Ferto | ~8% |
| 6 | Croatia | — | — | ~5% |
| 7 | Australia | Delta Goodrem | Eclipse | ~4% |
| 8 | Norway | — | — | ~3% |
| 9 | UK | Look Mum No Computer | Eins, Zwei, Drei | ~3% |
| 10 | Italy | Sal Da Vinci | Per sempre si | ~2.6% |
Key Trends to Watch
Rehearsals begin in late April, and this is historically when the biggest odds movements happen. Staging reveals can make or break an entry's chances, and songs that looked strong on paper can falter when the live production does not match expectations. Conversely, entries with spectacular staging often see dramatic odds shortening.
The semi-final allocation is also crucial. Finland, Greece, and Sweden are all in Semi-Final 1 on May 12, creating a loaded first semi that could see dramatic moments. Denmark is in Semi-Final 2 on May 14, where it will need to qualify before facing the Grand Final field.
For the best odds on all Eurovision 2026 markets including winner, top 10, jury winner, and semi-final qualification, check Betfred now. The market is moving fast and the best prices will not last.
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- Greece at Eurovision 2026: Akylas' Ferto
- How to Bet on Eurovision 2026: Beginner's Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite to win Eurovision 2026?
Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead the market with 'Liekinheitin', priced at 6/4 at Betfred with an implied probability of around 38%.
Has Denmark overtaken France in the Eurovision 2026 odds?
Denmark has joined France in joint second place as of April 9, 2026, after sustained fan momentum around Søren Torpegaard Lund's 'Før vi går hjem'.
Why is Italy attracting so many bets despite being 10th?
Italy has attracted roughly 17% of all Eurovision 2026 winner-market wagers despite sitting around 10th in the odds, suggesting Italian fan support and value-hunting bettors.
When do the Eurovision 2026 rehearsals start?
Delegation rehearsals begin in late April 2026 in Vienna, with the first technical rehearsals typically the biggest catalyst for odds movement.