Welcome to the Eurovision 2026 Weekly Odds Tracker, your go-to breakdown of every significant betting movement across the contest's outright winner market. Each week we track the shifts, explain what is driving them, and highlight where the value sits for bettors looking to get ahead of the crowd.
This has been one of the most eventful weeks of the Eurovision 2026 betting cycle so far. A stunning song release from France sent odds tumbling. A controversy in Sweden triggered one of the sharpest price corrections we have seen all season. And a dark horse from Czechia made a quiet but significant move that sharp bettors should be watching closely.
Let us get into it.
Current Top 10 — March 29, 2026
Here is where the outright winner market stands heading into the final weekend of March. Odds are aggregated across major bookmakers including Betfred, Bet365, and Unibet.
| Rank | Country | Artist & Song | Odds | Implied Probability | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | Liekinheitin | 2.50 | ~35.7% | STABLE |
| 2 | France | Monroe — "Regarde!" | 6.00 | ~15.0% | UP 5 places |
| 3 | Denmark | Soren Torpegaard — "For vi gar hjem" | 6.50 | ~13.8% | STABLE |
| 4 | Greece | Akylas — "Ferto" | 9.00 | ~10.0% | UP |
| 5 | Australia | Delta Goodrem — "Eclipse" | 10.00 | ~9.1% | DOWN from 3rd |
| 6 | Sweden | Felicia — "My System" | 15.00 | ~6.3% | DOWN sharply |
| 7 | Israel | Noam Bettan — "Michelle" | 16.00 | ~5.9% | STABLE |
| 8 | Ukraine | Leleka — "Ridnym" | 25.00 | ~3.8% | STABLE |
| 9 | Italy | Sal Da Vinci — "Per sempre si" | 24.00 | ~4.0% | SLIGHT UP |
| 10 | Cyprus | Antigoni — "Jalla" | 35.00 | ~2.8% | UP |
The market has reshuffled significantly compared to last week. Two entries climbed into the top five, two dropped out of their previous positions, and the gap between Finland at the top and the rest of the field has widened further. Let us break down every major movement.
The Big Story: France Rockets Into Second Place
The single biggest mover this week is France. Monroe's "Regarde!" was officially released on Monday, and by Wednesday the odds had contracted from roughly 15.00 to 6.00 — a five-place jump that represents the most dramatic single-week improvement in the Eurovision 2026 betting cycle to date.
What happened? In a word: quality.
"Regarde!" is a sophisticated, vocally demanding track that blends contemporary French pop with cinematic orchestration. The chorus is instantly memorable, the arrangement builds beautifully, and Monroe delivers it with the kind of effortless charisma that Eurovision juries eat for breakfast. Within 48 hours of release, fan reaction forums and prediction sites were buzzing, and the money started flowing.
France has several structural advantages working in its favour this year. Singing in French at Eurovision carries a romantic, cultural weight that English-language entries cannot replicate. The song's production quality is immaculate. And Monroe herself brings a combination of stage presence and vocal control that puts her in the upper tier of performers in Basel.
The jury appeal is the key factor here. "Regarde!" is the kind of song that professional musicians and industry insiders gravitate toward — technically impressive, emotionally layered, and delivered with artistry rather than gimmickry. At Betfred, France's odds in the jury winner market have shortened even more aggressively than the outright, sitting at approximately 4.00 at the time of writing.
For bettors, the question is whether 6.00 still represents value or whether the market has already priced in the song's quality. Our view: there is still room to move. France typically performs well at Eurovision when they send a quality French-language entry, and "Regarde!" is the best French submission in years. We expect these odds to shorten further once rehearsal footage from Basel starts circulating.
Check France's latest odds at Betfred — Bet 10 Get 50 in Free Bets
Finland Extends Its Lead at the Top
Finland's Liekinheitin remains the firm favourite at 2.50, translating to an implied probability north of 35%. That number has been remarkably stable over the past three weeks, which tells us something important: the market is confident. This is not a fragile frontrunner propped up by hype. This is a settled favourite with deep support.
Liekinheitin continues to polarise casual listeners while winning over anyone who watches the full performance. The genre-blending approach — which fuses elements of Finnish folk, classical composition, and modern production — is unlike anything else in the 2026 field. That uniqueness is its greatest asset. In a contest where dozens of entries compete for attention, being genuinely different is the surest path to being remembered.
The betting volume on Finland has been consistently high, and the price has barely fluctuated. When a favourite holds steady at 2.50 while the rest of the market reshuffles around it, that is a sign of genuine market confidence rather than speculative hype.
For bettors considering Finland, the outright odds of 2.50 offer a modest return but a relatively high probability of success. The more interesting play may be in the top 3 market, where Finland is priced at prohibitively short odds, confirming the market's view that a podium finish is almost certain.
Sweden's Fall: Felicia and the Controversy Effect
Sweden's Felicia has had a brutal week. "My System" dropped from approximately 8.00 to 15.00, shedding a staggering 138 implied probability points in the process. That is the sharpest decline of any top-10 entry this season, and it was driven almost entirely by off-stage controversy rather than any change in the song's quality.
The details of the controversy have been widely reported across Eurovision fan media. Without relitigating every aspect, the core issue is that comments made by Felicia in a series of interviews generated significant backlash on social media. The response was swift, loud, and relentless — the kind of viral negativity that can fundamentally alter how viewers perceive a Eurovision entry.
Here is why this matters for betting. Eurovision is a popularity contest as much as a music competition. The televote, which accounts for half of the final score, is driven by public sentiment. When a large segment of the Eurovision fanbase turns against an entry, the televote suffers — sometimes catastrophically. Sweden's traditional strength in the televote has been built on likability, accessibility, and a sense of fun. The current backlash undercuts all three of those qualities.
The jury vote may provide a floor. "My System" is a well-crafted pop song, and professional juries evaluate the music rather than the controversy. But even juries are not entirely immune to the atmosphere surrounding an entry. If the controversy continues to dominate the narrative heading into rehearsals, it could create a headwind that affects how jury members perceive the performance.
At 15.00, Sweden now sits sixth in the market — a far cry from the top-three position it held just ten days ago. For bettors, the question is whether this represents a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
Our view: wait. Controversy-driven odds movements tend to overshoot in both directions. The initial drop to 15.00 may be too severe if the story fades and attention shifts back to the music. But if the controversy escalates further, or if Felicia's rehearsal performances in Basel are overshadowed by protests or negative crowd reaction, the odds could drift even further. There is no rush to take a position here. Let the dust settle.
Australia Slides from Third to Fifth
Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" remains one of the strongest entries in the field, but Australia has slipped from third to fifth in the outright market, with odds drifting from approximately 8.00 to 10.00. This is not a dramatic collapse — it is more a natural correction as new information enters the market.
The shift is largely a consequence of France and Greece improving around Australia rather than any negative development for Goodrem herself. When Monroe's "Regarde!" landed and France surged to 6.00, it pushed everyone below it down a notch. Greece's recovery (more on that below) applied further pressure.
Australia's fundamentals remain strong. Goodrem is still regarded as one of the most talented vocalists in the competition. Eclipse continues to receive positive reviews from fan sites and prediction communities. And the jury winner market still has Australia priced at around 3.50, reflecting the widespread belief that Goodrem will score heavily with professional juries.
The televote remains Australia's structural weakness, as we discussed in our dedicated Australia betting guide. Without diaspora voting blocs or geographic neighbours to provide a base level of support, Goodrem needs to win televotes purely on the strength of her three-minute performance. That is a tall order, even for an artist of her calibre.
At 10.00, Australia is still a reasonable outright bet for those who believe in Goodrem's ability to deliver a transcendent live performance. But for sharper value, the jury winner market at 3.50 remains the more compelling angle.
Greece Bounces Back
Greece had a wobble earlier this month when Akylas's "Ferto" briefly dipped to around 12.00 following some lukewarm reaction to early staging concepts. That dip has now fully reversed, with Greece climbing back to 9.00 and sitting fourth in the market.
The recovery was driven by a revised staging preview that addressed the concerns fans had raised. The new concept leans into the song's intensity with more dramatic lighting, tighter choreography, and a visual narrative that complements the raw energy of "Ferto" rather than competing with it.
Greece has a natural advantage in the televote thanks to a passionate diaspora and strong cultural connections across the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans. Combined with a song that has genuine crossover appeal beyond the Greek-speaking world, Akylas looks well-positioned for a strong result.
At 9.00, Greece sits in a cluster with Australia (10.00) that could break either way depending on rehearsal performances. Both are genuine contenders for the podium.
Denmark Holds Firm in Third
Soren Torpegaard's "For vi gar hjem" continues to hold steady at 6.50, and Denmark's position as the third favourite has been remarkably consistent over the past month. While France surged past to take second place, Denmark's odds have barely moved — which suggests the market sees it as a tier above the Australia-Greece cluster but a notch below the top two.
Denmark's appeal lies in the emotional authenticity of the song and Torpegaard's understated but compelling delivery. "For vi gar hjem" translates roughly to "Before we go home," and the song carries a wistful, reflective quality that tends to resonate deeply with both juries and a certain segment of the televoting public.
The Scandinavian bloc voting effect also works in Denmark's favour, providing a solid base of televote points from neighbouring countries. Combined with a song that jury members will appreciate for its craft and sincerity, Denmark looks like one of the safest top-five bets in the market.
Notable Movers Outside the Top 10
Czechia — The Dark Horse Everyone Should Be Watching
The most intriguing movement this week happened outside the top 10. Daniel Zizka's "Crossroads" has climbed to 12th in the betting, and Czechia's odds have shortened steadily over the past two weeks despite the song not even being officially released yet.
That is the critical detail. The odds are moving on anticipation alone — on leaks, snippets, insider buzz, and the track record of the Czech delegation in selecting competitive entries in recent years. When odds shorten before a song release, it typically means that insiders who have heard the track are putting their money where their ears are.
The official release is expected on Wednesday. If "Crossroads" lives up to the pre-release hype, Czechia's odds could contract sharply, potentially cracking the top 10 within days. For bettors who like to get ahead of the market, this is the window. A small position on Czechia now, before the song drops, could look very smart by next week's update.
Malta — Sliding Out of Contention
Aidan's "Bella" has had a disappointing few weeks. Malta dropped from 10th to 13th in the betting, and the odds have drifted from approximately 30.00 to 45.00. The song has not generated the kind of buzz that Malta's delegation was hoping for, and the lack of momentum suggests that "Bella" may struggle to qualify from the semi-final, let alone contend in the grand final.
For bettors who backed Malta earlier in the cycle, this is a frustrating drift. Our advice: cut your losses mentally and look elsewhere. The fundamentals do not support a recovery.
San Marino — Celebrity Factor in Play
Senhit and Boy George teaming up for "Superstar" is exactly the kind of left-field collaboration that gets Eurovision fans talking. San Marino has moved up slightly in the betting, though they remain a long shot in the outright market. The celebrity factor is generating media coverage that San Marino rarely receives, and Boy George's name recognition ensures that casual viewers will pay attention.
San Marino is unlikely to win Eurovision 2026, but at long odds they represent a small-stake punt for bettors who believe the star power could translate into a surprising semi-final qualification and a respectable grand final finish.
The Stable Middle: Israel, Ukraine, Italy, and Cyprus
Israel's Noam Bettan remains at 16.00 with "Michelle," holding steady despite the political noise that inevitably surrounds any Israeli Eurovision entry. The music is doing the talking here — "Michelle" is a polished, radio-friendly track that could easily pick up jury points if the performance is clean. The televote is harder to predict given the geopolitical dynamics, but the odds reflect a balanced assessment of both the upside potential and the risks.
Ukraine's Leleka holds at 25.00 with "Ridnym," benefiting from the strong sympathy vote that Ukrainian entries have received since 2022. The song itself is powerful and emotionally resonant, and Ukraine's ability to mobilise televote support should not be underestimated.
Italy's Sal Da Vinci edged up slightly to 24.00 with "Per sempre si." Italy always commands respect at Eurovision thanks to the quality of its music industry and the cultural weight of Italian pop. Da Vinci's entry is a traditional Italian ballad that will appeal to juries but may struggle to cut through with younger televote demographics.
Cyprus's Antigoni has been gaining traction with "Jalla," moving up to 35.00. The song has an infectious, summery energy that could play well during the live broadcast, particularly if the staging leans into the party atmosphere. At 35.00, Cyprus is a long shot but not an absurd one — stranger things have happened at Eurovision.
Pre-Party Season: What to Watch Next Week
We are now entering the pre-party season, the series of fan events and live performances held across European cities in the weeks before Eurovision. These events — held in Amsterdam, London, Madrid, Tel Aviv, and other cities — give artists their first chance to perform their entries in front of a live audience.
Pre-party performances are enormously influential on betting markets. A standout live showing can shorten odds overnight, while a weak performance can trigger a sell-off. Last year, several entries saw double-digit percentage swings in their implied probabilities based on pre-party footage alone.
Here is what to watch for:
France at the London Eurovision Party. Monroe's first live performance of "Regarde!" will be a key test. If the live vocal matches the studio version, expect France's odds to shorten further toward 5.00. If the live delivery falls short, the current 6.00 might be as good as it gets.
Sweden's reception at fan events. The controversy around Felicia means that her pre-party appearances will be scrutinised more heavily than any other entry. The crowd reaction — whether she is booed, cheered, or met with uncomfortable silence — will directly influence the market's assessment of her televote prospects.
Czechia's song release on Wednesday. This is the single most important data point of the coming week. If "Crossroads" is as good as the insider buzz suggests, Czechia will be the biggest mover in next week's update.
Finland's continued dominance. Look for any cracks in the favourite's armour. Has any entry emerged that could genuinely challenge Liekinheitin for the title? So far, the answer is no — but the pre-party performances could change that.
This Week's Betting Recommendations
Based on this week's market movements and our analysis of where the value sits, here are our recommended positions heading into the first week of April.
Best Value: France at 6.00
Monroe's "Regarde!" is the real deal. The song quality is outstanding, the jury appeal is enormous, and the current price still has room to shorten as the contest approaches. A bet on France at 6.00 gives you exposure to the week's biggest climber at odds that may not be available for much longer.
Betfred currently offers France at competitive odds alongside their Bet 10 Get 50 in Free Bets welcome offer for new customers, making it an excellent starting point for anyone looking to open a new account ahead of the Eurovision betting season.
Back France at Betfred — Bet 10 Get 50 in Free Bets
Dark Horse: Czechia Before Wednesday
The smart money is already moving on Daniel Zizka's "Crossroads" before the official release. If you want to get ahead of the market, a small-stake position on Czechia at current long odds could pay off handsomely if the song lands as well as the pre-release buzz suggests. The risk is real — the song might disappoint — but the reward-to-risk ratio is attractive at current prices.
Hold: Denmark at 6.50
Denmark has been one of the steadiest entries in the market, and 6.50 represents fair value for a genuine top-three contender. If you already have a position on Denmark, hold it. If you are looking to add exposure, this is a reliable option that is unlikely to drift significantly.
Avoid: Sweden Until the Dust Settles
Sweden at 15.00 might look tempting after the sharp drop from 8.00. Resist the urge to bottom-fish. The controversy surrounding Felicia has not resolved, and the pre-party season could either accelerate the recovery or make things worse. There is no informational edge in backing Sweden right now. Wait for clarity.
Each-Way Play: Greece at 9.00
Greece's recovery to 9.00 makes them an interesting each-way proposition. Akylas has the vocal talent, "Ferto" has the energy, and Greece has the diaspora support to push for a top-five finish even if the outright win proves elusive. At 9.00 with each-way terms paying top three or top five, this is a solid position.
Market Summary: Week Ending March 29, 2026
Biggest climber: France (15.00 to 6.00) — up 5 places to 2nd
Biggest faller: Sweden (8.00 to 15.00) — down to 6th, controversy-driven
Most stable: Finland (2.50) — three consecutive weeks at the same price
Dark horse alert: Czechia — climbing before song release on Wednesday
Best value bet: France at 6.00
Avoid: Sweden until controversy resolves
How We Track These Odds
Every week we aggregate outright winner odds from the major European bookmakers, including Betfred, Bet365, Unibet, Betsson, William Hill, Paddy Power, and others. We track the mid-market price (the average of the best available odds) and note the direction and magnitude of movement for every entry in the top 20.
Our implied probabilities are calculated from the decimal odds using the standard formula (1 / decimal odds), without adjusting for bookmaker margin. This means the total implied probabilities across all entries will sum to slightly more than 100%, reflecting the built-in house edge. The probabilities are directionally accurate but should be treated as approximations rather than precise forecasts.
For the most current odds and the best available prices, we recommend checking Betfred's Eurovision 2026 section directly. Their market is typically among the first to update and their odds are consistently competitive.
View the latest Eurovision 2026 odds at Betfred
Next Week's Update
The next edition of the Eurovision 2026 Weekly Odds Tracker will publish on Saturday, April 5. By then we will have Czechia's song release and the first wave of pre-party performances to analyse. If this week was eventful, next week could be seismic.
Stay tuned, bet smart, and enjoy the ride. Eurovision 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive contests in years.