Eurovision 2023 produced the only two-time outright Eurovision winner in contest history — Loreen, returning 11 years after her 2012 'Euphoria' win to take 'Tattoo' to victory in Liverpool. She entered Final morning at 1.65 outright (60.6% implied), beating Finland's Käärijä 'Cha Cha Cha' phenomenon despite Käärijä winning the televote with the 5th-highest televote score of the post-2016 era (376 points).
18+ | New customers only | T&Cs apply | Please gamble responsibly
Betfred — Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets on Eurovision 2026 Grand Final
The 2023 Result — Full Breakdown
| Position | Country | Artist | Jury | Televote | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Sweden | Loreen | 340 (1st) | 243 (2nd) | 583 |
| 2nd | Finland | Käärijä | 150 (9th) | 376 (1st) | 526 |
| 3rd | Israel | Noa Kirel | 177 (4th) | 185 | 362 |
| 4th | Italy | Marco Mengoni | 176 | 174 | 350 |
| 5th | Norway | Alessandra | 52 | 216 | 268 |
The Pre-Show Odds Timeline
| Date | Sweden outright (Loreen) | Finland outright (Käärijä) |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Melodifestivalen (Jan 2023) | 15.00 | 40.00 |
| Post-Melodifestivalen win (March) | 2.50 | 15.00 |
| Mid-April 2023 | 1.85 | 5.50 |
| SF1 night (May 9) | 1.75 | 4.00 |
| Friday jury show | 1.65 | 3.50 |
| Saturday morning | 1.65 | 3.25 |
| Actual result | 1st (WIN) | 2nd |
The Käärijä Televote Surge That Almost Caught Loreen
Astrid Lindqvist on the 2023 Käärijä phenomenon:
"Käärijä's 'Cha Cha Cha' was the closest a Finnish entry has come to winning Eurovision since Lordi 2006. The pre-show outright price drifted from 40.00 in January to 3.25 by Saturday morning — a 12.3x compression over four months, the largest pre-show drift of the 2023 cycle. Käärijä won the televote with 376 points, the 5th-highest televote score of the post-2016 era. But the jury score capped at 150 points (9th in jury vote), reflecting the structural challenge of avant-garde Finnish-language metal-pop with European-jury aesthetics. Loreen's 'Tattoo' produced the inverse split: 340 jury (1st) + 243 televote (2nd) = 583 total. The 100-point jury gap was decisive. Loreen won by 57 points overall — comfortable but not crushing."
The Two-Time Winner — Why Loreen Made History
Loreen is the only artist in Eurovision history to win the contest outright twice. The 2012 'Euphoria' victory came at 2.00 pre-show outright (50% implied). The 2023 'Tattoo' victory came at 1.65 pre-show outright (60.6% implied). Both were Melodifestivalen winners. Both maximised jury-archetype signals — vocal range, theatrical staging, emotional narrative arc. The €10 outright bet at 1.65 in 2023 returned £16.50 — modest in absolute terms but the cleanest pre-show favourite conversion of the post-2020 era.
Sweden's Pre-Show Favourite Conversion History (Updated)
| Year | Pre-show favourite price | Final position | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 (Loreen 'Euphoria') | 2.00 | 1st | WIN |
| 2015 (Måns Zelmerlöw 'Heroes') | 3.00 | 1st | WIN |
| 2023 (Loreen 'Tattoo') | 1.65 | 1st | WIN |
Three Swedish pre-show favourite wins in 12 years. The Melodifestivalen pipeline + Loreen's two appearances explain the structural Swedish dominance in pre-show favourite conversion.
The Polymarket 2023 Validation
Polymarket's 2023 Eurovision Winner contract traded approximately $24M in total volume (the first cycle where Polymarket Eurovision exceeded $20M). The Polymarket consensus on Loreen Saturday morning sat at 62.4% implied — within 2 percentage points of the UK book consensus at 60.6%. The 2023 cycle marked the first time Polymarket prices anchored UK book pricing on Eurovision rather than the other way around. The implication for UK bettors going forward: when Polymarket consensus aligns within 3 percentage points of UK book pricing on a pre-show favourite, the favourite conversion probability sits structurally at the implied rate or higher.
How To Cite This Work
Lindqvist, A. (2026). "Eurovision 2023 Sweden Betting Story: Loreen's Historic Second Win." EurovisionOdds.org, May 16, 2026.
The Bottom Line
Eurovision 2023 produced the only two-time outright Eurovision winner in contest history — Loreen at 1.65 pre-show outright (60.6% implied), winning with 583 points and a 100-point jury margin over Finland's Käärijä televote phenomenon. The 2023 cycle was the first where Polymarket consensus anchored UK book pricing rather than vice versa — a structural shift that defines modern Eurovision betting. UK bettors who placed £20 outright on Loreen returned £33 — modest absolute return but the cleanest pre-show favourite conversion of the post-2020 era.
Related Articles
- Sweden Eurovision Betting History: 7 Wins And The Melodifestivalen Pipeline
- Finland Eurovision Betting History: The Lordi-Liekinheitin Arc
- Eurovision 2024 Switzerland Betting Story: The Croatia Collapse
- Eurovision Bookmaker Accuracy 2014-2025
- Polymarket Eurovision 2026 Hits $159M Trading Volume
All 2023 result data sourced from EBU public records, Eurovision.tv jury and televote breakdowns, and EurovisionOdds.org tracked bookmaker pricing 2023. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. GAMSTOP. When the fun stops, stop.