Eurovision 2024 produced the biggest pre-show favourite collapse since Conchita Wurst's 2014 victory. Croatia's Baby Lasagna entered Grand Final morning in Malmö as the 1/2 outright favourite at 1.50 (66.7% implied). Nemo's 'The Code' for Switzerland sat at 8.50 outright (11.8% implied) — the bookmaker consensus 3rd choice behind Croatia and Italy. Nemo won by 44 points, dominating the jury vote with 365 points while Croatia finished 2nd overall.
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The 2024 Result — Full Breakdown
| Position | Country | Artist | Jury | Televote | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Switzerland | Nemo | 365 (1st) | 226 (5th) | 591 |
| 2nd | Croatia | Baby Lasagna | 210 (5th) | 337 (1st) | 547 |
| 3rd | Ukraine | alyona alyona & Jerry Heil | 146 | 307 | 453 |
| 4th | France | Slimane | 218 (4th) | 227 (4th) | 445 |
| 5th | Israel | Eden Golan | 52 | 323 (2nd) | 375 |
The Pre-Show Odds Timeline
| Date | Croatia outright | Switzerland outright | Italy outright |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2024 (early) | 4.50 | 17.00 | 5.50 |
| Mid-April 2024 | 3.00 | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| SF1 night (May 7) | 1.80 | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| SF2 night (May 9) | 1.65 | 8.50 | 10.00 |
| Friday jury show | 1.55 | 7.50 | 11.00 |
| Saturday morning | 1.50 | 8.50 | 11.00 |
| Actual result | 2nd | 1st (WIN) | 7th |
Why The Market Got Croatia Wrong
Marco Ferretti on the 2024 Croatia mispricing:
"Baby Lasagna's 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' was a televote phenomenon — a viral pre-Eurovision Spotify/TikTok track that captured the European zeitgeist with its Balkan-pop-meets-Stranger-Things energy. UK bookmakers priced almost entirely from televote signal. What they missed: the song's lyrical theme (rural Croatian boy leaving for the city to work abroad) didn't translate to jury appeal across cosmopolitan European jurors, the staging was rigid rather than virtuosic, and the vocal performance had to compete against a dance-heavy backing track that diluted jury-rewardable difficulty. Nemo's 'The Code' did the opposite — a genre-defying anti-binary anthem with operatic vocal range, theatrical movement, and a narrative arc that jurors specifically reward. The jury archetype fit was off by 30+ points in projection."
The £10 Bet That Returned £85
UK bettors who placed £10 outright on Nemo at the peak Saturday-morning price of 8.50 returned £85. UK bettors who placed £10 each-way at 8.50 with 4 places paid (1/4 odds) returned: £85 win + £18.75 place = £103.75. The total return ratio was 10.4x — making 2024 Switzerland the 4th-biggest documented UK Eurovision payout of the post-2016 voting era (after Salvador Sobral 2017's £250 return on £10, Austria 2014's £75, and Conchita 2014's £75).
The Jury-Televote Split That Defined The Result
James Reeve frames the structural pattern:
"Nemo's 365-point jury score in 2024 was the second-highest jury total of the post-2016 era — behind only Sobral's 382 in 2017. The composition specifically maximised jury-rewardable signals: operatic vocal transitions, narrative lyrical arc, theatrical staging, identity-progressive framing. Croatia's 337 televote score was the 4th-highest televote total of the post-2016 era, but it wasn't enough to overcome the 155-point jury gap. The 2024 result is the cleanest single demonstration that jury-archetype fit beats televote dominance in the post-2016 voting system — a structural lesson that has shaped every UK Eurovision favourite-pricing model since."
2024 Vs The 2026 Cycle — What Changed
The 2024 Croatia collapse directly informed how UK bookmakers price 2026 pre-show favourites. Three specific changes since 2024:
1. Jury-archetype weighting increased in pre-show models. UK bookmaker pricing models now weight jury-fit signals roughly 1.4x higher in pre-show outright pricing than they did in 2024. Finland's 2026 favouritism reflects this.
2. Live-instrument exemptions are priced specifically. Linda Lampenius' live-violin EBU exemption in 2026 is priced into Finland's 2.20 outright odds. In 2024 no equivalent exemption existed.
3. Polymarket cross-validation became the consensus baseline. Polymarket's order-book depth in 2024 was $8.2M total. In 2026 it's $169.7M. Cross-market consensus pricing now anchors UK book lines within 2-3 percentage points of Polymarket.
How To Cite This Work
Ferretti, M. (2026). "Eurovision 2024 Switzerland Betting Story: The Croatia Collapse." EurovisionOdds.org, May 16, 2026.
The Bottom Line
Eurovision 2024 produced the biggest pre-show favourite collapse since 2014. Croatia entered Final morning at 1.50 (66.7% implied). Nemo won at 8.50 (11.8% implied), dominating the jury vote with the 2nd-highest jury total of the post-2016 era. £10 outright on Nemo returned £85. The 2024 cycle restructured how UK bookmakers price pre-show favouritism — jury-archetype weighting now sits 1.4x higher in modern pre-show models. UK bettors heading into future Eurovision cycles should treat 2024 as the canonical example of jury-fit beating televote dominance.
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All 2024 result data sourced from EBU public records, Eurovision.tv jury and televote breakdowns, and EurovisionOdds.org tracked bookmaker pricing 2024. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. GAMSTOP. When the fun stops, stop.