Eurovision 2026: The Complete Guide to Betting Odds, All 35 Countries & Expert Predictions

Eurovision 2026: The Complete Guide to Betting Odds, All 35 Countries & Expert Predictions

The 70th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest is headed to Vienna, and the betting market is already delivering fireworks. Finland sits at the top of the odds board with a crossover act that has Eurovision veterans reaching for their wallets, while France and Denmark lurk dangerously close behind. With 35 countries confirmed — the smallest field since 2003 — and five nations boycotting the event, Eurovision 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most politically charged and competitively tight contests in recent memory.

We have been tracking Eurovision odds for years. This is our definitive guide to everything you need to know about betting on Eurovision 2026 — every country, every song, every angle worth backing.

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 *Eurovision 2026 Winner Odds Ranking*

Eurovision 2026: Key Facts at a Glance

| Detail | Info | |---|---| | **Venue** | Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria | | **Semi-Final 1** | Tuesday 12 May 2026 | | **Semi-Final 2** | Thursday 14 May 2026 | | **Grand Final** | Saturday 16 May 2026 | | **Edition** | 70th Eurovision Song Contest | | **Hosts** | Victoria Swarovski & Michael Ostrowski | | **Participating Countries** | 35 (smallest since 2003) | | **Host Broadcaster** | ORF (Austria) |

Austria earned hosting rights after **JJ** won Eurovision 2025 in Basel with the sensational "Wasted Love" — a genre-bending opera-meets-EDM performance that stunned voters and bookmakers alike. Now ORF brings the contest back to the Wiener Stadthalle, the very venue that hosted Eurovision in 1967, for what promises to be a landmark 70th anniversary celebration.

The Boycott Situation

The elephant in the room: **five countries are boycotting Eurovision 2026** over the continued participation of Israel. Spain, Ireland, Iceland, the Netherlands, and Slovenia have all withdrawn, citing political objections. This drops the participant count to 35 — down from 37 at Basel in 2025.

The most significant absence is **Spain**, which was part of the traditional Big-5 automatic finalists. With Spain out, the group is now the **Big-4**: France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. These four nations qualify directly for the Grand Final without competing in the semi-finals.

From a betting perspective, the boycotts matter. Fewer countries means fewer semi-final qualifiers needed, which slightly improves the odds for borderline acts. It also concentrates the televote among fewer competing fan bases.

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Current Betting Odds: The Top 10 Favourites

Here is where the market stands heading into late March 2026. These odds will shift dramatically once rehearsals begin in Vienna, so getting your bets in early can lock in serious value.

| Rank | Country | Artist | Song | Odds | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | **Finland** | Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen | "Liekinheitin" | ~2.50 | | 2 | **France** | Monroe | "Regarde !" | ~6.00 | | 3 | **Denmark** | Søren Torpegaard Lund | "Før vi går hjem" | ~6.50 | | 4 | **Greece** | Akylas | "Ferto" | ~9.00 | | 5 | **Australia** | Delta Goodrem | "Eclipse" | ~10.00 | | 6 | **Cyprus** | Antigoni | "Jalla" | ~15.00 | | 7 | **Norway** | Jonas Lovv | "Ya ya ya" | ~17.00 | | 8 | **Sweden** | Felicia | "My System" | ~19.00 | | 9 | **Italy** | Sal Da Vinci | "Per sempre sì" | ~21.00 | | 10 | **Ukraine** | Leléka | "Ridnym" | ~23.00 |

Odds shown are decimal and reflect the best available prices across major bookmakers at time of writing. For the best odds on Eurovision 2026, we recommend [**Betfred**](https://eurovisionodds.org/freebet), where new customers can **Bet £10 and Get £50 in Free Bets** — perfect for spreading across several Eurovision markets.

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Detailed Analysis: The Top 5 Favourites

1. Finland — Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen: "Liekinheitin" (~2.50)

Finland is the clear market leader and with good reason. **Linda Lampenius** — a classically trained violinist who has been a household name in Scandinavia for decades — teams up with rock vocalist **Pete Parkkonen** for "Liekinheitin" (roughly translating to "Flamethrower"). The song won Finland's national selection UMK with a record-breaking score, and the combination of classical violin, hard rock energy, and euphoric dance breakdowns creates something genuinely unlike anything else in the 2026 lineup.

This is the kind of act Eurovision rewards: distinctive, memorable, and impossible to ignore. The staging potential is enormous — picture sweeping violin solos under dramatic lighting before the track explodes into a full-throttle rock-dance hybrid. Finland last won Eurovision in 2006 with Lordi, another act that broke the mould. History could repeat.

**Betting verdict:** The odds have shortened considerably since UMK. At 2.50, the value has thinned, but Finland remains the most likely winner. If you haven't backed them yet, consider a smaller stake at current prices or look for enhanced odds offers. Betfred occasionally runs boosted prices on Eurovision favourites — worth checking their specials page.

**Jury vs Televote:** Finland should dominate the televote. The spectacle factor is off the charts, and the song has genuine crossover appeal that will resonate with casual viewers across Europe. Jury scores may be slightly lower — juries tend to reward polished vocalists and sophisticated compositions over spectacle — but the sheer quality of musicianship here (Lampenius is a world-class violinist) should keep jury marks respectable.

2. France — Monroe: "Regarde !" (~6.00)

France has been a sleeping giant at Eurovision for years, and Monroe's "Regarde !" might be the entry that finally wakes them up. This is a sophisticated, emotionally layered chanson with modern production that plays directly to jury sensibilities. Monroe delivers the kind of effortless French cool that makes Eurovision juries weak at the knees.

As a Big-4 nation, France skips the semi-finals entirely, which is a double-edged sword. There is no semi-final performance to build momentum and attract late betting money, but there is also no risk of an early exit. France goes straight to Saturday night.

**Betting verdict:** At 6.00, France offers genuine value if you believe the jury will carry significant weight. In recent years, the jury has accounted for 50% of the total score, and France consistently performs better with professional panels than with the public vote. If "Regarde !" delivers on stage the way it delivers on record, 6.00 will look generous in hindsight.

**Jury vs Televote:** This is a jury darling. Expect France to finish in the top 3 with juries but potentially outside the top 10 in the televote, where flashier entries from Finland and the Nordic bloc will hoover up points. The question is whether jury strength alone can carry France to victory — it has happened before (Duncan Laurence in 2019 was jury-powered), and it can happen again.

3. Denmark — Søren Torpegaard Lund: "Før vi går hjem" (~6.50)

Denmark is the sentimental pick this year. Søren Torpegaard Lund performs "Før vi går hjem" ("Before We Go Home") — an achingly beautiful ballad sung in Danish that has captured the hearts of the Eurovision fan community. In a contest often dominated by English-language pop, a Danish-language ballad feels refreshingly authentic.

Denmark has a patchy Eurovision record but tends to do well when it sends something genuine rather than chasing trends. This feels genuine. The song builds from a quiet, intimate opening into a sweeping emotional crescendo that is tailor-made for a big arena moment.

**Betting verdict:** At 6.50, Denmark represents outstanding value. This is the kind of entry that could finish anywhere from 1st to 8th depending on staging and running order. If Denmark draws a late slot in the Grand Final — particularly the coveted second-half positions — back them with confidence. The odds should shorten once rehearsal footage drops.

**Jury vs Televote:** Expect a balanced performance across both votes. Juries will appreciate the artistry and vocal control; the televote will respond to the raw emotion. Denmark probably will not top either individual vote but could finish high enough in both to contend for the overall win.

4. Greece — Akylas: "Ferto" (~9.00)

Greece has been quietly building momentum with "Ferto," a dark, intense entry from Akylas that blends contemporary Mediterranean sounds with electronic production. This is the kind of entry that divides opinion in fan circles but tends to perform well on the night because it stands out from the pack.

Greece knows how to do Eurovision. The country has a strong track record of qualifying from semi-finals and finishing in the top 10 of Grand Finals. Akylas brings genuine star quality and a song that demands attention.

**Betting verdict:** At 9.00, Greece is a solid each-way bet. They are unlikely to win outright unless the televote goes their way in a big way, but a top-5 finish is very achievable. If your bookmaker offers top-5 or top-3 markets, Greece is worth a look.

**Jury vs Televote:** Greece traditionally scores well in the televote thanks to its diaspora communities across Europe, particularly in Germany, Belgium, and the UK. Jury scores should be decent but not spectacular. This is a televote-powered entry.

5. Australia — Delta Goodrem: "Eclipse" (~10.00)

Australia is sending a genuine A-lister. **Delta Goodrem** is one of Australia's biggest pop stars — a multi-platinum artist, TV personality, and one of the most recognized voices in Australasian music. "Eclipse" is a polished, radio-ready pop ballad that showcases her vocal range and emotional delivery.

The challenge for Australia is always the televote. As a non-European country, Australia relies heavily on jury points to climb the scoreboard. The good news is that Delta Goodrem is exactly the kind of artist juries love: technically brilliant, emotionally connected, and performing a well-constructed song.

**Betting verdict:** At 10.00, Australia offers strong value for punters who believe the jury will be decisive. If you are building an accumulator or looking for a high-return each-way bet, Delta Goodrem deserves a place on your slip. Australia's best-ever finish was 2nd in 2016 with Dami Im — another powerhouse vocalist with a big ballad.

**Jury vs Televote:** Australia will almost certainly finish in the jury top 5. The televote is the concern. Without a natural European fan base, Australia needs to deliver a performance so stunning that casual viewers pick up their phones. Delta Goodrem has the talent to do it, but the televote gap could cost her the overall win.

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All 35 Countries: Artists, Songs & Betting Assessment

Here is the complete lineup for Eurovision 2026 with our quick-fire assessment of each entry's chances.

Semi-Final 1 Contenders

**Albania — Alis: "Nân"** Albania brings another dramatic entry. Alis delivers a powerful vocal performance in Albanian, which tends to resonate with Balkan televotes but can struggle with Western European juries. Semi-final qualifier, but Grand Final top 10 is a stretch.

**Armenia — Simón: "Paloma Rumba"** A Latin-flavoured entry from Armenia, which is an interesting stylistic choice. "Paloma Rumba" has infectious energy but may get lost in a stacked field. Outside chance of qualifying.

**Azerbaijan — Jiva: "Just Go"** Azerbaijan rarely misses the Grand Final, and Jiva's uptempo "Just Go" has the commercial appeal to continue that streak. A safe qualifier but unlikely to threaten the top 10.

**Croatia — Lelek: "Andromeda"** Croatia impressed at Eurovision 2025 and returns with Lelek's atmospheric "Andromeda." This is a dark horse for the semi-finals — could surprise with the right staging. Worth a small bet to qualify at decent odds.

**Cyprus — Antigoni: "Jalla"** One of our **top dark horse picks**. Antigoni delivers a high-energy Mediterranean banger that is tailor-made for the Eurovision stage. "Jalla" has the hooks, the staging potential, and the kind of infectious chorus that gets Europe voting. At around 15.00 for the outright win, Cyprus offers serious value. This is the entry most likely to pull a Loreen-style upset.

**Denmark — Søren Torpegaard Lund: "Før vi går hjem"** Covered in detail above. The class of Semi-Final 1. Should qualify comfortably and carry momentum into Saturday.

**Estonia — Vanilla Ninja: "Too Epic To Be True"** A nostalgic pick — Vanilla Ninja were a beloved early-2000s act. The question is whether nostalgia translates to votes in 2026. Fun entry but probably a mid-table semi-final finish.

**Georgia — Bzikebi: "On Replay"** Georgia brings Bzikebi with the catchy "On Replay." Solid entry that should comfortably qualify from the semi-final. Not a winner, but a dependable performer.

**Latvia — Atvara: "Ēnā"** Latvia enters with a moody, atmospheric track sung in Latvian. Beautiful song that may struggle to cut through in a competitive semi-final. Borderline qualifier.

**Lithuania — Lion Ceccah: "Sólo quiero más"** A Spanish-language entry from Lithuania is certainly a curveball. Lion Ceccah brings Latin pop energy, but Lithuania's track record at Eurovision is inconsistent. An entertaining wildcard.

**Moldova — Satoshi: "Viva, Moldova"** Moldova doing what Moldova does best — sending an unashamedly fun, patriotic party track. "Viva, Moldova" will get the arena on its feet and should qualify. Never count out Moldova's ability to charm the televote.

**Poland — Alicja: "Pray"** Poland sends a powerful ballad. Alicja has a big voice and "Pray" builds to a dramatic climax. Semi-final qualifier with an outside shot at the Grand Final top 15.

**Portugal — Bandidos do Cante: "Rosa"** Portugal sends a traditional folk group with "Rosa" — reminiscent of their 2017 winning approach of keeping things authentic and understated. Could be a jury favourite in the semi-final. Dark horse to watch.

**San Marino — Senhit: "Superstar"** Senhit returns to Eurovision for San Marino. She delivered the iconic "Adrenalina" with Flo Rida in 2021. "Superstar" is a slick pop track, but San Marino faces an uphill battle to qualify from an increasingly competitive semi-final.

**Serbia — Lavina: "Kraj mene"** A Balkan ballad from Serbia that will play well with regional televotes. Lavina has a captivating voice, and "Kraj mene" ("Next to Me") has emotional depth. Should qualify.

**Switzerland — Veronica Fusaro: "Alice"** Switzerland — defending champion territory after Nemo's 2024 win and a strong 2025 showing — sends Veronica Fusaro with the intriguing "Alice." This is an artful, left-field pop entry that could connect strongly with juries. Worth watching in rehearsals.

Semi-Final 2 Contenders

**Australia — Delta Goodrem: "Eclipse"** Covered in detail above. Should cruise through the semi-final on jury points alone.

**Austria — Cosmó: "Tanzschein"** The host nation's entry automatically qualifies for the Grand Final, but Austria will still perform in the semi-final for broadcast purposes. Cosmó's "Tanzschein" ("Dance License") is a fun, upbeat track in German. Being the host gives Austria a natural advantage in the televote — home-crowd energy is real.

**Belgium — Essyla: "Dancing on the Ice"** Belgium sends a polished pop entry that could do well with juries but may lack the televote punch to break into the top 10. Comfortable semi-final qualifier.

**Bulgaria — Dara: "Bangaranga"** Bulgaria's Dara brings the high-energy "Bangaranga" — a track with serious club appeal. This could be a surprise package if the staging delivers. Semi-final dark horse.

**Czechia — Daniel Žižka: "Crossroads"** Czechia has been steadily improving at Eurovision, and Daniel Žižka's "Crossroads" continues that upward trajectory. A solid, competent entry that should qualify.

**Finland — Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen: "Liekinheitin"** Covered in detail above. The favourite. Will dominate Semi-Final 2.

**Greece — Akylas: "Ferto"** Covered above. Strong qualifier headed for a high Grand Final placement.

**Israel — Noam Bettan: "Michelle"** Israel's participation remains controversial, but Noam Bettan's "Michelle" is a slick pop entry that stands on its own musical merits. Israel has historically performed well at Eurovision, and the controversy may even boost televote engagement from supporters. Will qualify.

**Luxembourg — Eva Marija: "Mother Nature"** Luxembourg returned to Eurovision in 2024 after a long absence and is still finding its feet. Eva Marija's "Mother Nature" has an environmental message wrapped in gentle pop. Borderline qualifier.

**Malta — Aidan: "Bella"** Malta sends the charming "Bella" from Aidan. A lightweight, feel-good pop track that could charm its way through the semi-final. Malta tends to qualify more often than not.

**Montenegro — Tamara Živković: "Nova zora"** Montenegro's "Nova zora" ("New Dawn") is a contemporary Balkan pop entry. Tamara Živković has a strong voice, but Montenegro faces stiff competition. Borderline.

**Norway — Jonas Lovv: "Ya ya ya"** Another **dark horse pick**. Jonas Lovv's "Ya ya ya" is an irresistibly catchy, feel-good anthem that could become the earworm of Eurovision 2026. Norway has recent Eurovision pedigree (Subwoolfer's viral 2022 entry, Alexander Rybak's 2009 win), and "Ya ya ya" has that same kind of instant memorability. At around 17.00, Norway offers outstanding each-way value.

**Romania — Alexandra Căpitănescu: "Choke Me"** Romania goes bold with a provocative title and a dramatic performance. "Choke Me" is dark pop with an edge. Could be polarizing but will certainly be remembered. Semi-final qualifier.

**Sweden — Felicia: "My System"** Sweden at Eurovision is always a contender, and Felicia's "My System" is a polished, well-produced pop track. However, this feels like a year where Sweden is not at full strength. Still a semi-final certainty and Grand Final top-15 material, but the win feels unlikely at 19.00. Worth a small each-way bet if you believe in Sweden's unrivalled Eurovision machine.

**Ukraine — Leléka: "Ridnym"** Ukraine carries enormous emotional weight at Eurovision, and Leléka's "Ridnym" ("To the Native Ones") taps directly into that well of feeling. This is a haunting, beautiful entry that will resonate deeply with both juries and the televote. At 23.00, Ukraine is an interesting outsider bet — if the geopolitical sympathy vote holds, a top-5 finish is possible.

Big-4 (Automatic Grand Finalists)

**France — Monroe: "Regarde !"** Covered in detail above. The strongest Big-4 entry by a distance.

**Germany — Sarah Engels: "Fire"** Germany has struggled at Eurovision for years, often finishing near the bottom. Sarah Engels brings name recognition and a pop-rock track in "Fire" that has more energy than Germany's recent entries. Could this be the year Germany avoids last place? The odds suggest the market remains sceptical. A bottom-5 finish is most likely, but Sarah Engels has the charisma to outperform expectations.

**Italy — Sal Da Vinci: "Per sempre sì"** Italy sends the legendary Sal Da Vinci — a Neapolitan music icon — with "Per sempre sì" ("Forever Yes"). This is classic Italian balladry with modern touches, and it will go down a storm in the arena. Italy at its best is a Eurovision powerhouse (winners in 2021 with Måneskin), and Sal Da Vinci brings gravitas. At around 21.00, Italy could be the value bet of the Big-4.

**United Kingdom — Look Mum No Computer: "Eins, Zwei, Drei"** The UK sends one of the most eccentric entries in years. **Look Mum No Computer** — the viral YouTuber and synth builder known for creating instruments out of everything from Game Boys to Furbys — performs "Eins, Zwei, Drei" ("One, Two, Three" in German). This is a wildcard entry that will either be a cult hit or a complete disaster. The title alone — a British act singing in German — tells you everything about the level of cheekiness involved. Entertaining? Absolutely. Winner? Almost certainly not. But if the staging captures even a fraction of his YouTube energy, the UK could have a genuine fan-favourite moment.

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Betting Strategy: Where Is the Value?

Best Outright Winner Bet

**Finland at 2.50** remains the most likely winner, but the value at that price is thin. If you haven't already backed Finland, look for enhanced odds offers. [**Betfred**](https://eurovisionodds.org/freebet) regularly offers boosted prices on Eurovision, which can push Finland's effective odds to 3.00 or higher.

Best Value Bet

**Denmark at 6.50** is our pick for the best value in the outright market. The song is beautiful, the artist is compelling, and the odds overestimate the gap between Denmark and Finland. If the semi-final performance lands — and "Før vi går hjem" is the kind of song that rewards live delivery — Denmark could shorten to 3.00 or less by Grand Final night.

Best Each-Way Bet

**Cyprus at 15.00** each-way. "Jalla" has top-5 potential, and at those odds, you are being paid handsomely for a realistic outcome. Cyprus has Eurovision pedigree (Eleni Foureira finished 2nd in 2018), and Antigoni has the stage presence to deliver.

Best Dark Horse

**Norway at 17.00** is the fun bet. "Ya ya ya" has meme potential, earworm factor, and the kind of joyful energy that Eurovision televoters love. Norway could easily finish 6th-10th, but if everything clicks on the night, a top-3 is not impossible.

Best Accumulator

• Consider combining:
• Finland to finish top 3 (short odds but near-certain)
• France to finish top 5 (jury strength makes this very likely)
• Cyprus to qualify from Semi-Final 1 (should be comfortable)
• Australia to qualify from Semi-Final 2 (Delta Goodrem will not miss)

This four-fold should return around 3.50-4.00 combined and has a high probability of landing.

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Jury vs Televote: The Split That Decides Everything

Understanding the jury-televote dynamic is the single most important factor in profitable Eurovision betting. The winner is determined by combining 50% jury vote and 50% televote, and the entries that top each individual vote are often wildly different.

Predicted Jury Top 5 1. **Australia** — Delta Goodrem is jury catnip: powerful vocal, elegant song, flawless delivery. 2. **France** — "Regarde !" is sophisticated enough to impress even the most jaded jury panellist. 3. **Denmark** — Artistry and authenticity play well with professional musicians. 4. **Switzerland** — "Alice" has the kind of clever construction juries notice. 5. **Finland** — Even juries cannot deny the musicianship, even if the spectacle factor is more of a televote strength.

Predicted Televote Top 5 1. **Finland** — The spectacle king. Casual viewers will eat this up. 2. **Cyprus** — "Jalla" is a party anthem tailor-made for living rooms across Europe. 3. **Norway** — "Ya ya ya" gets stuck in your head and makes you smile. That wins televotes. 4. **Greece** — Diaspora vote plus a genuinely compelling performance. 5. **Moldova** — "Viva, Moldova" is the kind of feel-good moment that activates the phone lines.

What This Means for Betting

If you believe the **jury** will be decisive, back **France** or **Australia** — both are underpriced relative to their jury appeal.

If you believe the **televote** will be decisive, back **Finland** (safe) or **Cyprus/Norway** (higher risk, higher reward).

The last few years suggest the televote has had a bigger impact on the final outcome. Entries that win the televote by a wide margin tend to win the contest even with mediocre jury scores. This favours Finland above all others.

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Special Markets Worth Exploring

Top Big-4 Country **France** should win this market at prohibitive odds. The only challenger is Italy, and Sal Da Vinci would need a spectacular night to overtake Monroe. Bet France if the odds are above 1.40.

Top Nordic Country This is where it gets interesting. Finland is the obvious pick, but **Denmark** and **Norway** both have dark horse potential. Finland should still win the Nordic battle, but if you can get Denmark at value odds in this market, it is worth a look.

Top Balkan Country **Serbia** and **Croatia** are the main contenders here. Serbia's traditional strength makes Lavina the slight favourite, but Croatia's Lelek with "Andromeda" could spring a surprise. Worth shopping around for the best odds.

Last Place in Grand Final The market typically settles on **Germany** for last place, and Sarah Engels will need to pull off something special to break that recent tradition. However, the UK's eccentric entry could also flirt with the bottom of the scoreboard. Germany remains the most likely last-place finisher.

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How Eurovision Odds Work: A Quick Guide for New Bettors

If you are new to Eurovision betting, here is what you need to know.

**Decimal odds** are the standard format across European bookmakers. An odds of 6.00 means a £10 bet returns £60 (including your stake) if your selection wins. The lower the odds, the more likely the bookmaker thinks that outcome is.

• **Outright winner** is the most popular market — simply pick who will win the Grand Final. But there are also markets for:
• **Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10 finish** — Lower risk, lower reward
• **Semi-final qualification** — Will a country make it through to Saturday?
• **Head-to-head matchups** — Which of two countries finishes higher?
• **Winning margin** — By how many points will the winner triumph?
• **First country to receive 12 points** — A fun in-play market

**When to bet:** The best value is found **before rehearsals begin**. Once rehearsal footage leaks (and it always does), the odds move sharply. Bookmakers adjust prices based on rehearsal reactions, fan polls, and betting volume. If you have a strong opinion now, act on it.

**Where to bet:** We recommend [**Betfred**](https://eurovisionodds.org/freebet) as the best bookmaker for Eurovision 2026. Their Eurovision markets are comprehensive, their odds are competitive, and their new customer offer — **Bet £10 Get £50 in Free Bets** — gives you plenty of ammunition to spread across multiple markets.

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Key Dates for Your Eurovision Betting Calendar

| Date | Event | Betting Impact | |---|---|---| | **Late April** | Rehearsal schedule announced | Running order can shift odds 10-20% | | **4-8 May** | First rehearsals in Vienna | Major odds movements — this is when you see real staging | | **9-10 May** | Second rehearsals | Fine-tuning — smaller odds adjustments | | **11 May** | Semi-Final 1 dress rehearsal | Last chance to bet on SF1 qualifiers | | **12 May** | **Semi-Final 1 LIVE** | Qualification results lock in Grand Final field | | **13 May** | Semi-Final 2 dress rehearsal | Last chance to bet on SF2 qualifiers | | **14 May** | **Semi-Final 2 LIVE** | Full Grand Final lineup confirmed | | **15 May** | Grand Final dress rehearsal | Final odds shake-up before Saturday | | **16 May** | **GRAND FINAL** | The main event |

The biggest odds movements happen between first rehearsals and the Grand Final. Acts that look stunning in rehearsals will see their odds crash; acts that disappoint will drift dramatically. If you plan to bet in-play during this window, check the odds daily.

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Our Expert Predictions

After analysing every entry, studying historical patterns, assessing the jury-televote dynamics, and factoring in the unique circumstances of Eurovision 2026, here are our predictions:

**Winner:** Finland — Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen with "Liekinheitin"

**Runner-up:** France — Monroe with "Regarde !"

**Third place:** Denmark — Søren Torpegaard Lund with "Før vi går hjem"

**Top 5 also:** Australia and Greece

**Dark horse to crash the top 5:** Cyprus

**Best Big-4 finisher:** France (top 3)

**Biggest disappointment:** Sweden — a rare year where Melodifestivalen does not deliver a contender

**Last place:** Germany (sorry, Sarah)

We rate Finland as having approximately a 35-40% chance of winning, France at 15%, and Denmark at 12-15%. The remaining 30-35% is spread across the field, with Greece, Australia, and Cyprus the most likely alternatives.

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Final Thoughts

Eurovision 2026 in Vienna is shaping up to be a contest of genuine quality. The 70th anniversary edition may have a reduced lineup due to the boycotts, but the entries that remain are strong. Finland's crossover spectacle, France's sophisticated artistry, Denmark's emotional authenticity, and a cluster of dark horses in Cyprus, Norway, and Portugal make this a compelling betting contest.

Get your bets in early. Lock in value before the rehearsal footage sends the market into overdrive. And if you are looking for the best place to bet on Eurovision 2026, **Betfred's Bet £10 Get £50 offer** gives you the firepower to cover multiple markets and maximise your chances of a profitable Eurovision week.

See you in Vienna.

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