Eurovision Odds & Favorites 2025: Sweden Maintains Lead Following First Semifinal
By Sean Tomlinson
Last updated: May 14, 2025, 11:52 AM EDT
The Eurovision Song Contest fills the air with excitement. The first semifinal took place. Sweden shone on stage. It stays the favorite to win 2025. A strong act put Sweden at the top of the odds.
A Dazzling Start to Eurovision 2025
Eurovision 2025 began with high energy. Music poured in from soft ballads to fun dance tracks. Acts used bold costumes and smooth moves. Yesterday, ten countries moved on to the grand final planned for Saturday.
Sweden sent KAJ with the song “Bara Bada Bastu” (which means "Let’s Take a Sauna"). Sweden’s past wins show it is a strong race driver. KAJ passed the first round with ease.
Rising Challengers in the Mix
Sweden holds the lead, and other teams try hard. Austria gained strength with a better score after its show. The Netherlands, with a long record at Eurovision, now has a closer chance after qualifying. Estonia made a clear mark with strong support.
The next semifinal runs tomorrow. Ten new finalists will be chosen.
Current Odds for Eurovision 2025
According to Kalshi, here are the win chances for the top countries:
- Sweden: 44%
- Austria: 24%
- Netherlands: 7%
- France: 6%
- Estonia: 5%
- Israel: 5%
- Finland: 4%
- Albania: 2%
- Armenia: 1%
- Germany: 1%
Key Observations from the First Semifinal
- Sweden and Austria stand in a two-team race. Only these two have a chance of 24% or more.
- Sweden leads at 44%. Its score fell by 13 points after the round.
- Austria jumped from 5% to 24%. Its odds grew fast.
- Estonia now has 5%, up by 3 points.
- The Netherlands moved from a 3.33% chance to 7%. This change shows more support.
Sweden: A Eurovision Powerhouse
Sweden shares the record for the most wins, with seven victories alongside Ireland. Wins since 2012 make it a top team at Eurovision. KAJ’s upbeat song fits well with the fun and flair of the contest.
Looking Ahead
The next semifinal brings more heat. Favorites must hold their ground as new teams seek to improve their chances. Eurovision mixes song, style, and fun. The 2025 show will be one to remember.
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